. The crossings are being closely watched by energy markets given how critical Hormuz remains to global crude flows, with about a fifth of the world’s oil supply moving through the waterway under normal conditions. Several ships attempting recent crossings have altered routes, paused near the entrance to the strait, or switched off tracking transponders during portions of their journeys, highlighting the ongoing risks. If these latest tankers complete the passage safely, it could help calm immediate fears around a more severe supply disruption, though shipping activity through the region remains well below pre-conflict levels and insurance and freight costs continue to rise.
Markets are caught between strong AI-driven earnings momentum and a more fragile macro backdrop amid rising bond yields and persistent inflation concerns. Semiconductor and memory-related stocks continue to benefit from massive AI infrastructure spending, supporting earnings growth and leadership within equity markets. However, the broader market may be beginning to show signs of fatigue as higher long-term Treasury yields push up discount rates and pressure equity valuations. Investors are also becoming more cautious about the second half of the year as risks from inflation, fiscal deficits, elevated oil prices, IPO supply, and midterm election uncertainty weigh on sentiment. All eyes will turn to the NVIDIA earnings report after market close today, which will be a giant litmus test to see if the AI momentum will continue.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said a few things about the Federal Reserve, and a recent WSJ article highlights just how his views have evolved over the years. Early in his career at the Fed during and after the financial crisis, Warsh defended central bank independence, warning that excessive intervention risked undermining the Fed’s credibility and turning it into a branch of government policy. After leaving the Fed in 2011, however, he became a more vocal critic, saying the central bank had drifted from its mandate and was too tolerant of inflation. More recently during Trump’s return to office, Warsh appeared more aligned with the administration’s economic views suggesting the Fed itself, rather than tariffs or fiscal policy, was responsible for inflation pressures. At his 2026 confirmation hearing, Warsh attempted to strike a balance, reaffirming that “Fed independence means everything to me,” while also saying that independence must be “earned” through effective policy outcomes. Markets may be getting a Fed Chair who still believes in independence but may define it differently than some of his predecessors.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are wrapping up talks, just a week after Trump made his trip to China. The meeting reinforces how the China-Russia relationship is evolving into a deeper long-term strategic partnership centered on challenging U.S.-led global influence, despite differences of their own. The signing of roughly 40 agreements spanning energy, trade, infrastructure, technology, AI, and rail development highlights how both countries are attempting to build parallel economic systems less exposed to Western sanctions and financial pressure. At the same time, China continues balancing its support for Russia carefully, looking for closer ties without becoming overly entangled in the economic and reputational risks associated with the Ukraine war.
Busy quarter. Recent financial disclosures show that Trump executed more than 3,500 stock trades in Q1, averaging roughly 60 transactions per trading day and involving hundreds of millions of dollars in activity. The trades included large purchases in NVIDIA, Oracle, Microsoft, and Boeing, alongside sales of holdings in Meta, Amazon, and Disney. While the Trump Organization says the portfolio is managed independently through automated discretionary systems without presidential involvement, the scale and pace of trading is unusual for a sitting president and has renewed debate around ethics, transparency, and potential conflicts given the administration’s influence over tariffs, regulation, geopolitics, and other market-moving policy decisions.
No tax breaks here. Canada’s proposed Canada Strong Fund is intended to give Canadians the ability to invest alongside the government in major nation-building projects, rather than serve as a tax reduction vehicle, according to Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne. The sovereign-style fund, first announced by PM Mark Carney, would be seeded with $25 billion and help finance infrastructure projects and domestic companies, potentially including pipelines, ports, and energy investments. While details are still being developed, the government says the fund will include a retail component allowing Canadians to participate directly in projects that have historically been accessible mainly to institutional or accredited investors. Tax incentives are not currently part of the plan, though consultations are ongoing and the structure could still evolve.
Romance ain’t cheap. Inflation isn’t just something central banks are worried about, just ask the single folks. “Date-flation” is leading many singles to treat romance as both an emotional and financial commitment, with the average date in the U.S. now costing roughly $252, up 32% from last year and well above the national average of $189. A typical night out can easily include $90–$140 for dinner, $30–$60 for drinks, $25–$50 for transportation, and another $30–$80 for entertainment, pushing annual dating costs to nearly $3,000 for singles. As inflation, high mortgage rates, and rising everyday expenses strain budgets, nearly half of singles now question whether dating is financially worthwhile, while 40% of millennials say it interferes with long-term goals like saving, investing, or homeownership.
Diversion: When nature calls
