Launch Pad

Sluggish. The job market in the U.S. showed little momentum in January, with private employers adding just 22,000 jobs, well below expectations according to data from ADP. Hiring would have been negative if not for a 74,000 jump in education and health services, while most other sectors were flat, with notable losses in professional and business services, manufacturing and other services. Mid-sized firms accounted for nearly all the job growth, as small businesses saw no change and large employers cut positions. Wage growth held steady at about 4.5% for workers who stayed in their roles, suggesting limited pressure for employers to increase pay. Overall, the report points to a sluggish “low-hire, low-fire” environment that may raise concerns at the Fed about a softening labour market. 

It wasn’t us. Bank of Canada research found that Canada’s food inflation in 2025 was driven largely by import-related costs rather than domestic pressures. Excluding fruits and vegetables, food prices rose 3.1% y/y, with 2.7% of that increase attributed to direct food imports, imported inputs, and international shipping. Key drivers included a weaker Canadian dollar in late 2024, global supply disruptions, and tariffs, which pushed prices for items like coffee (+31%) and confectionery (+14%) higher. Domestic factors such as wages, energy, and locally produced goods played a much smaller role. While overall food inflation hit 6.2% year over year by December, part of that reflects temporary base effects from last year’s GST holiday. The findings suggest food inflation pressures are largely externally driven and may ease if global supply conditions, tariffs, and currency effects stabilize, though lower-income households remain disproportionately exposed. 

Echoes of the Monroe Doctrine are resurfacing as China criticized Panama’s top court for voiding CK Hutchison’s contract to operate two ports near the Panama Canal, calling the decision “absurd” and warning of political and economic consequences. The ruling disrupts a proposed sale by CK Hutchison, controlled by Li Ka-shing, to a BlackRock-led consortium, a transaction that would have shifted control of the strategic assets away from Chinese-linked operators. Beijing accused Panama of yielding to external pressure and politicizing a commercial dispute, without directly naming the U.S., which has welcomed the decision as part of its effort to curb Chinese influence over strategic infrastructure. Panama maintains the move reflects its sovereignty over critical infrastructure. The decision adds another flashpoint to U.S.–China tensions as both sides attempt to preserve a fragile trade truce. 

The partial U.S. government shutdown ended yesterday after Trump signed a bipartisan funding deal negotiated with Senate Democrats, reopening most federal agencies and averting a prolonged shutdown. The package funds the majority of the government through the end of the fiscal year but only keeps the Department of Homeland Security running for 2 more weeks, setting up another near-term clash over immigration enforcement and deportation policy. Trump called the agreement a victory because it preserves money for deportation flights, while many Democrats opposed it for failing to impose new limits on immigration agents. A bloc of House conservatives initially tried to block the bill but backed down after pressure from Trump, allowing the measure to pass despite complaints about spending increases. Although the shutdown was brief (at least compared to the last one), it has already delayed key data releases, including the monthly jobs report, and highlights how fragile budget negotiations remain heading into the next funding deadline. 

The Government of Canada thanks you for your “contributions”. Canadians have left over $2 billion sitting unclaimed after failing to cash about 3.9 million federal government cheques over the past four fiscal years, with the $2.16 billion total covering tax refunds, pensions, and benefit payments issued by departments including the CRA. The uncashed funds include roughly $141 million in Canada Carbon Rebate payments, $50 million in B.C. climate action credits and about $42.8 million from the Canada Child Benefit, meaning thousands of families never collected tax-free support meant to offset living costs. Although some of these programs have ended, government cheques never expire and can still be reissued if lost or forgotten, and Canadians can check their CRA accounts or call to request replacements. While Ottawa prefers direct deposit, millions of cheques are still mailed, with paper payments making up about 8.5% of all federal disbursements. PSA: switch to direct deposit! 

It’s cold in most parts of Canada, which is exactly what you would expect in the dead of winter, so forgive those of us whose fingers and toes are bearing the brunt of February for feeling a little envious of Calgary, where at least someone in the country gets a break. According to the weather network, southern Alberta is set for an unusually warm stretch this week, pushing temperatures 10 to 15°C above seasonal norms. Calgary could see daytime highs in the mid to upper teens through the end of the work week, building on an already mild January where average highs ran well above normal. The city is now on track for a prolonged run of above-freezing daytime temperatures that could last into mid-February. That said, winter is far from over. Forecasts already hint at colder air returning later this month, and history suggests snow is still very much in the cards, with Calgary typically seeing meaningful snowfall well into spring. So, don’t put those winter coats away just yet. 


Diversion: Robots can’t replace everything yet 

Oil is little changed as traders weigh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and data showing a sharp drop in U.S. stockpiles. The American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels last week, the biggest drawdown since June if confirmed by official data due later today. Concerns over a potential conflict in the Middle East, a source of about a third of the world’s crude, has helped push prices higher last month despite signs of a growing oversupply. Oil has also been caught up in the tumult of wider commodity markets that saw gold and silver plummet before recouping some of those losses.