Today
Equities are mixed this morning after a down day for markets, with tech stocks leading declines. Warnings from Wall Street executives about frothy prices, coupled with renewed hawkish signals from the Fed, have weighed on sentiment. Despite resilient earnings and ongoing enthusiasm for AI-related investments, market breadth remains extremely narrow, with just a handful of megacap stocks driving most of the gains this year. Analysts caution that while the AI theme still has long-term momentum, the market’s concentration and overbought conditions suggest that caution is warranted. Investors now turn to upcoming economic data, including ADP payrolls, ISM services, and mortgage reports, for clues on the economy, as well as ongoing earnings releases.
Private sector payrolls rose by 42,000 in October, slightly beating expectations and signaling some resilience in the U.S. labour market despite broader economic uncertainty. The gains, led by trade, transportation, and utilities, offset losses in tech and manufacturing. Large companies drove all the job growth, adding 76,000 positions, while smaller firms shed 34,000. Wage growth remained steady, with pay up 4.5% for job stayers and 6.7% for switchers. Although hiring has slowed to an average of 60,000 jobs per month in the second half of the year, the ADP report provides a rare glimpse into labour conditions as the ongoing government shutdown has halted official data releases. The Fed is sure to be watching these numbers after recently cutting rates by 25 bps.
Sticker shock? Canada’s first budget under Mark Carney projects an additional $167 billion in deficits over five years as the government boosts spending on defense, housing, and infrastructure. The plan aims to counter the impact of U.S. and China tariffs and stimulate long-term investment, but weaker revenues from earlier tax cuts and modest economic expansion (forecast near 1%) are widening fiscal gaps. Despite calling it a bold budget, analysts view it as incremental, with limited immediate stimulus and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio peaking at 43.3% by 2027–28. The budget reallocates spending toward capital projects, pledges to balance day-to-day operations by 2028–29 and maintains accelerated business writeoffs to spur productivity. Markets responded calmly, with bond yields falling and the loonie steady, as investors viewed the fiscal path as convincing but constrained by minority government politics and slower economic momentum.
2026 voter insights? Voters in Virginia, New Jersey, New York, and California delivered the first big read on Trump-era politics ahead of next year’s midterms. Turnout was high, especially in NYC. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor’s race, while in New York City, Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, became the city’s first Muslim and South Asian mayor. Democrats are trying to regroup after last year’s losses, even as divides persist between moderates like Spanberger and progressives like Mamdani. In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill won the governor’s race against Jack Ciattarelli, and in California, voters approved Proposition 50, backing Governor Gavin Newsom’s plan to redraw congressional districts in Democrats’ favour. Altogether, the results may be read as referendums on Trump, with strong turnout across all four states despite the ongoing federal shutdown.
Speaking of shutdowns…the U.S. government closure enters its 36th day and is on track to become the longest in history. The latest Republican-backed stopgap measure failed in the Senate for the 14th time, while Democrats continue to push for a plan that includes renewed subsidies for Affordable Care Act insurance premiums, which expire this year. The shutdown has derailed IPO activity, pushing potential listings past Thanksgiving and possibly into next year as the SEC remains closed. Companies such as Andersen Group, Medline, and Wealthfront have likely missed their window, even with the workaround that lets filings go effective after 20 days. Market volatility and limited flexibility in pricing have also dampened enthusiasm, as recent IPOs like Navan and Beta Technologies faced weak debuts. While some firms that filed earlier in 2025 may still attempt year-end listings, most are expected to wait until 2026 given the approaching holidays and backlog expected once the SEC reopens.
Toronto home sales fell 2.3% in October as uncertainty surrounding Canada’s trade tensions with the U.S. discouraged both buyers and sellers. New listings also declined nearly 2%, while benchmark home prices edged up 0.2% from the previous month but remained 5% lower year over year. The slowdown comes amid stalled negotiations to lift U.S. tariffs on key Canadian industries like autos and steel, after Trump halted talks in response to an Ontario anti-tariff ad. The resulting economic uncertainty has led businesses to pause hiring and investment, dampening housing market confidence as many potential buyers remain cautious despite relatively affordable conditions.
Bended knee like a knight. Former England captain and Manchester United star, Sir David Beckham, finally received his knighthood from King Charles yesterday for services to sport and charity. This knighting comes after a 14-year wait, with David first being put forward for a knighthood in 2011. Earlier this year, David said he was “immensely proud” of being recognized in the King’s Birthday Honours, after being put forward by UNICEF, the charity he has worked with for 20 years. He was previously nominated after helping to secure the London 2012 Olympics. David keeps some good company with Nobel Prize-winning novelist Sir Kazuo Ishiguro and West End performer Dame Elaine Paige also among the stars set to be recognized at the investiture ceremony.
Diversion: BBQ out of this world
