Flying in the dark. One of the first things we do in the morning as Launch Pad writers is check futures pricing to gauge the market mood, extrapolate what we see, dig into the drivers, and then share it with our readers. Earlier today that routine was upended, with no U.S. futures data to look at and a screen frozen at last night’s time stamps. For what it’s worth, U.S. stocks were on course for their first monthly loss since April before the outage hit, with the S&P 500 having narrowed its decline to about -0.4% heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. As of about 8:30 a.m. ET, futures trading has resumed and U.S. equity futures are pointing higher, and we’ll see if that strength holds on what will be a short Black Friday session, with U.S. markets closing at 1 p.m. ET. In Canada, futures are higher as well, with the TSX firming up its monthly gains at roughly 3.1% in price returns.
Big rebound. The Canadian economy grew at a 2.6% annualized pace as housing investment and government spending, offset continued weakness in trade and consumer activity. Residential investment rose 6.7%, and government capital spending provided another boost, even as exports showed only a faint recovery from earlier trade-war disruptions and imports fell 8.6%. What’s surprising about these numbers is it comes as domestic demand softened, household consumption fell for the first time since 2021, and business investment declined again amid rising unemployment. While the stronger-than-expected Q3 figures are welcome news, early data show output slipping in October with the economy expected to need support from fiscal policy.
Black Friday, for real. A major outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) halted trading of futures and options for hours on Friday, disrupting activity across equities, FX, bonds and commodities. The issue was due to cooling-system failures at a CyrusOne data center supporting CME’s Globex platform, cutting off liquidity for millions of contracts tied to the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq. Traders described the session as “flying dark” without U.S. futures to guide price discovery, and the timing was especially difficult with contract rolls, fuel-futures expiries, and about $600 billion in S&P 500 options set to expire. Gold, oil and some FX markets saw erratic moves, bid-ask spreads widened sharply, and liquidity shifted to alternative venues. CME has begun restoring operations, including reopening its EBS FX platform, but full resumption across all markets remains unclear.
Major reset. Mark Carney unveiled a sweeping energy pact with Albert that would advance a oil pipeline to the West Coast. The deal would also launch a multibillion-dollar carbon capture project and develop nuclear power to support data centers, all as part of a strategy to reduce Canada’s reliance on U.S. energy markets and create higher-paying jobs. The plan commits to net-zero emissions in the energy sector by 2050 and offers Alberta regulatory concessions in exchange for higher industrial carbon pricing, while also expanding clean power and electricity transmission across western provinces. The agreement signals a major reset in relations between Alberta and the federal government, but sets up a new conflict with BC, where leaders and Indigenous groups have opposed any new pipeline.
This again? Major tech companies are warning of a potential global memory-chip shortage as demand rises from AI infrastructure buildouts. The crunch is pushing manufacturers to prioritize high-end AI memory and straining supplies of more common chips. Firms expect component costs to significantly increase and are now preparing by stockpiling chips. Adding to this, firms are raising device prices and scrambling to secure more suppliers. U.S. sanctions that limits Chinese chipmakers are only making things worse, with products like smartphones, cars, and medical equipment set to be impacted the most.
Tokyo’s November CPI confirms that inflation in Japan remains sticky, with core prices rising 2.8% y/y and both headline inflation and the gauge excluding fresh food and energy (core-core CPI) also holding steady. While Tokyo CPI only covers the capital, it is treated as an early indicator for the national gauge that the Bank of Japan ultimately targets. Tokyo’s inflation is running near 3%, above the Bank of Japan’s 2% goal, and may be enough to support a potential 25 bps rate hike in December despite political pressure for patience. Seasonally adjusted headline CPI rose 0.3% m/m, an annualized pace of about 3.7%, with both goods and services contributing, which implies inflation is likely to stay firm into 2026. The picture of stubborn price pressures also mirrors trends in North America, where inflation has proven harder to bring back to target than expected.
How much do you trust your colleagues? A man in Ontario has been charged with theft, fraud over $5,000, and possession of property obtained by crime after allegedly failing to share a $1-million Lotto Max prize he had agreed to split with two other group-play participants. According to police, the ticket was purchased as part of a workplace pool, but when the numbers hit, one member allegedly tried to cash in solo. The lottery’s forensics team (there is such a thing) was able to flag the claim and referred it to police, who confirmed the winning ticket was bought by a group. Office (unfortunate) reminder: get those lottery agreements in writing and take a picture of the ticket if you can.
Diversion: On your mark, get set, go
