Equities are moving higher this morning as upbeat tech earnings helped extend the market’s strong start to the month. Palantir jumped 11% after better-than-expected results and guidance and Teradyne rose 22% on a solid revenue outlook. Investors are now bracing for more earnings, including Advanced Micro Devices, Pfizer, Amazon, and Alphabet, with markets watching whether AI-driven growth and a steady Fed policy backdrop can continue supporting stocks despite expectations for more volatility in February. Gold and silver are rebounding this morning after last week’s historic drop, as dip buyers stepped in and a softer dollar helped lift prices, with spot gold jumping as much as 6% toward $4,950 an ounce and silver climbing more than 10% above $87. Demand from Chinese investors buying the dip, especially ahead of the Lunar New Year, is expected to play a key role in determining how quickly prices stabilize. Geopolitical risks and lingering concerns about central bank policy, including tensions between the U.S. and Iran and comments from Trump about potential talks, are also keeping safe-haven interest alive.
Another day, another deal. U.S. and India struck a trade deal that reduces tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and scraps an additional 25% penalty tied to India’s purchases of Russian oil. The agreement followed a call with Modi, who agreed to curb Russian oil imports and reduce both tariff and non-tariff barriers on U.S. goods, while committing to buy more than $500 billion of American energy, tech, agricultural, and industrial products. The cuts are expected to benefit key Indian export sectors like textiles and machinery and provide relief to an economy where nearly 20% of exports go to the states. The deal also reshapes energy flows, as India scales back discounted Russian crude purchases and shifts toward U.S. supplies, adding pressure to global oil markets already facing oversupply.
Too soon to call it a pivot point? U.S. manufacturing surprised to the upside in January, expanding at the fastest pace since 2022 as new orders and production rebounded sharply. The ISM manufacturing index jumped to 52.6, well above expectations and back into expansion territory after nearly a year of contraction, with order backlogs and export demand also improving. The report points to firmer underlying demand helped by lean customer inventories, though the tone remains cautious. Elevated input costs, longer supplier lead times, and uncertainty around tariffs are weighing on sentiment and capital spending, suggesting the rebound is encouraging but not yet on firm footing.
The U.S. administration’s stance toward a weaker USD is creating fresh headwinds for equity investors, as currency swings make American stocks less attractive to global buyers. While a softer dollar can help U.S. exporters and boost multinational earnings abroad, it also raises input costs, risks importing inflation, and dampens foreign demand for U.S. assets. Investors have been rotating toward international markets, with i.e. European, and Japanese indexes outperforming U.S. benchmarks in local-currency terms. The S&P 500 has lagged these regions once currency effects are included, while baskets of weak-dollar beneficiaries have risen relative to domestic-focused stocks. Strategists say the trend could become self-reinforcing, as dollar weakness prompts diversification away from U.S. equities and strengthens foreign currencies.
Stats Canada pushed back the release of its next CPI report after investors warned that publishing the data on a public holiday could disrupt trading and disadvantage domestic investors. The agency will now publish the inflation figures on Feb. 17 instead of the earlier date, which coincided with Family Day when equity and bond markets are closed. Officials said the change is meant to ensure the data can be used effectively and fairly by investors and policymakers in real time. Economists had argued that releasing market-moving information while local markets were shut could create distortions and give foreign traders an edge.
It looks like StatsCan isn’t the only one delaying data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said it will delay the January jobs report because the partial U.S. government shutdown has halted normal operations, pushing back one of the market’s most closely watched economic releases. The shutdown began after Congress failed to pass a spending plan, with disputes over homeland security funding, though lawmakers say a resolution could come within days. Officials confirmed the Employment Situation report, originally due Friday, will only be published after government funding resumes, adding to disruptions after last year’s shutdown already delayed several data prints. BLS also oversees reports on inflation, trade, and labour-market indicators. Investors had expected the payrolls report to show about 55,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, so the delay leaves markets without fresh signals on hiring momentum.
Will vs. Phil, who’s right? In Canada, Wiarton Willie skipped his shadow and called for an early spring, while Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania saw his shadow and warned of six more weeks of winter. For many of us braving extreme cold, Willie could not have picked a better outcome. As for accuracy, the track record is more tradition than science. Studies generally put groundhog predictions at roughly 30% to 40% accuracy, not much better than a coin toss, which makes it a fun ritual but a questionable forecasting tool. For more reasons than one, including a clear naming bias on our team, we are giving Phil the edge on the early spring call anyway.
Diversion: Now that’s an apology
