Launch Pad

The TSX erased its gains for 2026, now down -1.2% YTD and reached its lowest level since mid-December, driven largely by a sharp selloff in gold stocks as bullion prices dropped about -15% since the Iran conflict began. Heavyweight gold producers have led declines, exposing the downside of the TSX’s significant gold sector weighting, which had previously boosted performance. Rising oil prices have shifted market expectations toward higher inflation and fewer rate cuts, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and pressuring related equities. Despite the recent drop, the TSX is still outperforming the S&P 500 this year, down roughly -5%. 

Rate hikes on the horizon? Money markets have shifted toward a more hawkish outlook from the Bank of Canada as earlier concerns around energy-driven inflation pushed oil prices higher. Traders are now pricing in a 20% chance of a rate hike as soon as next month, up from just 4% previously, with about 75 bps of tightening implied by year-end, a quick reversal from earlier expectations of rate cuts. That said, signs of potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict may temper some of these pressures if sustained. Governor Tiff Macklem has signaled patience in assessing the shock, while he also emphasized the bank will act if inflation comes creeping back. Economists continue to caution that raising rates into a weakening domestic economy could strain households and businesses, suggesting the BoC may still hesitate to raise rates. 

The tight relationship between Big Tech and the broader market has broken down, with the Magnificent Seven now moving independently from the equal-weight S&P 500. The correlation turned negative recently amid war-driven volatility and rising oil prices. This shift follows a period where Big Tech lagged due to concerns over heavy AI spending, but the recent decoupling has some strategists suggesting that it could signal a potential rebound, as valuations have fallen to more attractive levels and earnings growth remains stronger than the rest of the market. While risks continue (especially around declining free cash flow and skepticism toward massive AI investment, particularly impacting Nvidia) some see the setup as favourable for Big Tech to regain leadership, especially if capital rotates back into U.S. equities. 

China is looking to keep the peace when it comes to global trade, as officials pledged to address concerns over the country’s massive trade surplus and promote more balanced trade relationships. This comes as tensions continue to linger despite a recent tariff truce between Trump and Xi Jinping. Beijing plans to widen access to its services sector and boost imports, especially in areas like healthcare, digital technology, and low-carbon services, to create opportunities for foreign firms and ease global imbalances. The move comes as China’s record $1.2 trillion surplus and strong exports raise protectionist risks from partners such as Europe, while domestically the economy faces weak consumption and industrial overcapacity. Officials, including many from the central bank, argue the surplus supports global growth, but economists say China still needs to shift toward stronger domestic demand. Meanwhile, rising energy costs from the Iran war add another layer of risk, threatening to squeeze manufacturers and complicate China’s efforts to stabilize growth and trade relations. 

Low Earth Orbit is quickly becoming a critical part of the global economy, supporting communications, navigation, and defense, attracting investors who put in over $45 billion in 2025 alone. Unlike higher orbits, LEO satellites operate closer to Earth, enabling faster, cheaper, and more responsive services, typically through large groups such as SpaceX’s Starlink (already roughly 9,500 satellites), alongside major expansion plans from Amazon (Project Kuiper), Blue Origin, Eutelsat (OneWeb), and China’s massive ambitions. The sector is increasingly being viewed as a potential multi-decade growth area, with growing interest in orbital data centers and AI-enabled space computing, highlighted by Nvidia’s new platform. With the rapid commercialization now outpacing outdated regulatory frameworks, which were designed for simpler, state-led space activity, some are raising concerns about governance, space debris, and systemic risk. 

Gold and silver pared dramatic losses as Trump postponed military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period. Spot gold rebounded to trade about -2% lower, while silver also rallied, erasing losses of more than -10%. Bullion had earlier plunged as much as -8.8% in early trading in London, extending steep losses seen since the war began. Part of the gold’s poor performance throughout the war can be explained by a dash for cash, as the conflict sees investors ditch their relatively liquid assets. Expectations of higher interest rates and a stronger dollar have also added to headwinds. Since the conflict began, surging energy prices have raised the odds of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. A similar dynamic followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when an initial spike in the safe-haven asset was followed by a months-long decline, as an energy price shock rippled through markets and added to inflationary pressures.