. Despite the decline, the total was still the highest for any November since 2022 and up 24% from a year earlier, with layoff levels remaining elevated. Hiring plans are weak, now down 35% from 2024 and at their lowest year-to-date level since 2010. On the bright side, unemployment claims fell, declining to 191,000 in the week ending Nov. 29, the lowest level since 2022. The drop of 27,000 claims came in below economists’ expectations of 220,000, though the data can be volatile around holidays like Thanksgiving, leaving many to believe that the labour market continues to cool.
Opposite Effect. Trump’s new tariffs, which were intended to reshore U.S. manufacturing jobs, are not living up to their promise. Instead, the tariffs have raised concerns that higher import costs will lead companies to cut staff, with ISM survey respondents across industries reporting plans for layoffs, offshoring, and reduced investment as manufacturing activity contracts and employment gauges fall to multi-month lows. Executives say tariff-driven uncertainty is creating a tougher environment, while some energy and industrial firms anticipate major head-count reductions next year as cash flow weakens. Although broader economic indicators like Q3 GDP and recent payrolls data remain relatively solid, organizations, including the OECD and Fed, note that the full impact of tariffs has not yet been felt, and early signs (including declining imports, elevated costs, and cautious corporate commentary) suggest rising risks for the labour market next year.
Labour productivity in Canada rose 0.9% in Q3, the strongest gain since late last year, as business output rebounded and hours worked moved slightly lower. The latest numbers partly reversed the hit from U.S. trade tensions earlier this year, with the increase beating economists’ expectations. Gains were led by manufacturing and oil and gas extraction, with productivity improving in more than half of all industries. Still, the broader trend remains weak, with productivity essentially flat since 2021 and growing only 0.6% per year over the past decade, far below the U.S. On the bright side, recent GDP revisions have helped improved historical productivity estimates, suggesting the backdrop wasn’t as bad as previously thought.
China is expected to maintain its annual economic growth target at around 5% next year, a level that will require continued fiscal and monetary stimulus as the country works to counter deflation, weak consumer demand, and the effects of its continued property slump. Government advisers argue that keeping the target steady would help launch China’s new five-year plan on solid footing, though some have suggested lowering the target slightly to 4.5–5%. Policymakers are likely to keep a high budget deficit ratio of roughly 4% and use early bond issuance, additional rate cuts, and extended consumer subsidies. While restructuring the economy and boosting household consumption remains front and center, those changes will take time, leaving near-term growth dependent on stimulus.
Pandemic hangover easing. The Fed has begun to reverse its pandemic-era losses, with data showing its deferred asset (an accounting measure of accumulated losses) is shrinking, signaling that the central bank is earning enough income to slowly offset past shortfalls. The losses, which stemmed from the Fed’s massive pandemic bond-buying program and the subsequent rise in interest rates, created a mismatch between the low yield on its holdings and the high interest it had to pay banks to maintain policy rates. With recent rate cuts reducing those payments and market yields rising above the rate the Fed pays on reserves, analysts say the central bank has likely ended its negative carry. While it may still take a few more years to fully dig themselves out, economists estimate the Fed could post over $2 billion in profits this quarter.
Home sales still an issue. Toronto home prices fell again in November, slipping 0.4% to $971,100 as slow demand and increased listings continued to weigh on the market. New listings outpaced sales by more than two-to-one, leaving inventory nearly 17% higher than a year earlier, while overall sales dropped almost 16%. The west coast appears to be in the same spot, with Greater Vancouver on track for its slowest housing market in 25 years, with just 1,846 homes sold in November and only 22,263 sales so far in 2025, likely falling below the previous low set in 2018. Prices in Greater Vancouver have held relatively flat, with detached homes averaging $2.02 million and condos just under $800,000. The slowdown reflects economic uncertainty tied to stalled efforts to reverse U.S. tariffs which has discouraged major investments, including home purchases. Although many households hope to benefit from lower borrowing costs and prices, potential buyers appear afraid to jump into the market, concerned about their employment and the overall state of the economy.
Trashed panda. Virginia liquour store employees were shocked when they came in to work on Saturday that somebody had broken into the store. They found shattered whiskey bottles strewn across the shop floor, shards of glass soaking in puddles of booze and an unlikely suspect: an intoxicated raccoon, splayed on its stomach in the bathroom. An officer who works at the local animal control in Ashland, Va., determined the U.S. Thanksgiving break-in was not the work of a human, said after falling through the ceiling, the racoon had himself a little party and drank itself silly, knocking bottles off the shelves before stumbling into a toilet stall and passing out. It was later released into the wild after sobering up.
Diversion: Just one of the guys
