Today
European and Asian equity markets rebounded, with futures pointing higher this morning after Trump stepped back from tariff threats against European countries that opposed the proposed U.S. takeover of Greenland and ruled out the use of force (more on that below). Gold prices pulled back after hitting record highs earlier this week, reflecting some easing in U.S.–Europe tensions. Media reports have floated the possibility of a compromise involving limited U.S. sovereignty over land in Greenland, though Denmark’s prime minister pushed back, stating that sovereignty is not open to negotiation. EU leaders are set to continue discussions today in Brussels. On the corporate front, earnings season continues, with companies including General Electric and Procter & Gamble reporting before the open, and Intel reporting after the close.
Data dump. Markets are digesting a slew of U.S. economic data out this morning starting with Q3 annualized GDP (q/q) that came in slightly better than expected at 4.4% vs 4.3% forecast. This report replaces the third estimate originally scheduled for December 19, 2025, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. Q3 real GDP was revised up 0.1% from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Overall, the expansion in the quarter was supported by consumer spending, exports, and government spending. On the job front, applications for U.S. unemployment benefits were little changed last week, steadying at low levels after a volatile holiday season. Initial claims increased by 1,000 to 200k compared to the forecast of 209k. Continuing claims fell to 1.85 million in the previous week to the lowest since November. Other data points out this morning include personal income and spending, personal consumption and PCE.
TACO. Trump backed away from plans to impose tariffs on European countries over Greenland, saying he had agreed to a “framework” of a future deal after meeting the NATO chief at the World Economic Forum, a sudden reversal that seemed to calm markets after days of volatility driven by fears of a transatlantic trade war. Trump said the tariffs scheduled for Feb. 1 would not go ahead and framed the move as progress toward broader discussions on Arctic security and that Golden Dome he keeps on mentioning, though he offered no concrete details and Denmark again rejected any negotiations over ceding Greenland. The ease followed market losses earlier in the week and capped a familiar pattern in which big threats were softened once financial and diplomatic pressure grew, with senior U.S. officials in Davos urging allies to remain calm and signalling the dispute would eventually end.
We’re not grateful? A pointed exchange between Canada and the U.S. surfaced publicly after Trump accused Mark Carney of ingratitude, responding to Carney’s remarks at the World Economic Forum where Carney contended that the rules-based international order was effectively dead and urged “middle powers” to band together. In response, Trump said Canada “lives because of the United States,” pointing to U.S. military protection and suggesting his proposed Golden Dome missile shield would also defend Canadian airspace. While Carney did not name Trump directly in his speech, he cited tactics associated with U.S. policy, including tariffs, financial leverage, and weaponized supply chains, and warned that countries not acting collectively risk being marginalized. The exchange highlights a strategic shift under Carney, who campaigned on reducing Canada’s reliance on the U.S., while increasing defence spending, including significant investments in Norad modernization and Arctic security. Even so, Canada and the U.S. remain tightly linked on defence through Norad and NATO, with Carney reaffirming support for Denmark’s sovereignty over Greenland alongside Mark Rutte as Trump continues to press U.S. claims in the Arctic.
It’s good to be prepared, I guess. Canada’s military has quietly modeled how it would respond to a hypothetical U.S. invasion, reflecting how quickly relations have deteriorated since Trump began talking about Canada as a potential 51st state. While officials have stressed that an invasion remains highly unlikely, the planning reportedly assumes American forces could overwhelm Canadian defenses within days. The discussions come as Trump adopts a more aggressive stance towards Greenland and broader Arctic security, prompting Canada to accelerate defense spending, expand its northern military presence, and consider joining NATO exercises in the region.
Any buyers out there? New condo sales in Toronto have effectively stalled, with purchases falling 60% last year to just 1,599 units, the lowest level since 1991, according to Urbanation. That marks a 95% decline from the 2021 peak and reflects the sharp retreat of investors who had fuelled the city’s multi decade condo boom. The slowdown has rippled through development activity, with fourth quarter sales hitting their weakest level since 1990 and developers cancelling a record 28 projects totalling more than 7,000 units in 2024, largely because weak pre-construction sales have cut off financing. Urbanation warns that the downturn now entering its fifth year raises serious concerns about future supply, noting that by the end of the decade there are likely to be virtually no new condo completions coming to market.
Who’s ready to talk baseball again? As the Toronto Blue Jays get set to celebrate their 50th anniversary since Toronto landed an MLB franchise in 1976, the club is leaning into both nostalgia and excitement from last year’s memorable and heartwarming run. Fans heading to Rogers Centre this season will notice a refreshed game-day experience, with new 100 Level concourse displays honouring franchise icons and championship years, a dedicated Season Ticket Member entrance, a forthcoming Level of Excellence memorabilia showcase, and a new 50th anniversary logo woven throughout the stadium. The upgrades come at a time when optimism is already elevated after last year’s World Series run and some added pitching depth, adding to the sense that this season could be a fun one to be part of, on and off the field. Single-game tickets go on sale today (season-ticket holders presale was yesterday), with the home opener set for March 27. The game will feature a pregame ceremony honouring the AL Championship where, according to the team, fans can “relive special moments from the deep postseason run,” a reminder of how close this group came and why there is real excitement about what year 50 could deliver. Let’s go Blue Jays.
Diversion: Cutest thing…..ever
