2023 outlook: bear market end game

January 2023

This is a synopsis of our outlook heading into 2023:

2023 should start off decently as inflation comes down a bit more, partially alleviating the markets’ biggest fear. Plus, a little January effect could certainly help. However, less inflation will start to accelerate slowing corporate earnings. And the wealth effect of falling equity/bond markets over the past year plus delayed economic impact of rate hikes / higher yields will cause economic growth to fall significantly. This could trigger the final leg down of the bear and create the better buying opportunity, hopefully sometime in the first half, as the market begins to look through the trough and rally back to be positive on the year.

Of course, the only recurring theme with investing more persistent than cycles, is that markets surprise us all in the end.