candlestick and line chart of mid-year stock performance

Road not taken

November 2022.

The next few quarters will likely remain volatile in both directions. Fortunately, entry points today in either equities or bonds do offer a compelling 12-month outlook. In a year, inflation will likely have subsided to a degree. If a recession arises in North America, it should be largely played out by that point. There might be better entry points ahead, but one-year return expectations are the best we have seen in many years, given current yields and valuation. Based on this view we remain comfortable with being market-weight equities and bonds. Should either market sell off more, it would be more enticing to go overweight at that time.