market portfolio analysis

When does the bear market end?

October 2022.

Even after the strong mid-summer rally, markets were left in a slightly negative position to end the quarter. In Canada, the S&P/TSX finished down -1.4% and the S&P 500 finished slightly worse down -4.9% (USD). Market drawdowns in the US were not drastically in favour of growth or value, in fact, value surprisingly finished marginally worse than growth over the quarter by about 2.0%. That is not something you would expect in a rising rate environment but is something you would expect in the final stage of a bear market that sees more indiscriminate selling. With Q3 coming to a close, the question is, when does the bear market end?