Data, schmata… what’s in a number anyway?

Market Ethos.
12 December 2022.

This is a big week, with the release of the latest U.S. inflation number. Expectations are for year over year Consumer Price Index (CPI) to continue to drift lower, falling from 7.7% in October to 7.3% in November. This decrease is already priced in, and as we’ll get to later in this Ethos, there will be more to come. It’s the deviations from the expected that catch the market off guard and can ignite a larger market move.

Case in point: the 17% rally off the October lows from a rather meagre 0.2% positive surprise. Markets have already started getting a case of the jitters, with the S&P 500 posting five straight negative days. The substantial rally has brought some holiday season cheer but appears to be petering out ahead of CPI and the next FOMC meeting.

Related articles

Market Ethos

Question time

March 24, 2025. Market Ethos. In any given month, there are many questions from advisors and investors. Here are a few succinct answers to these…

2 minute read

Market Ethos

Warning signs popping up

March 17, 2025. Market Ethos. The policy uncertainty and flip-floppery has worn down market patience. Markets can handle bad news, but unfortunately, uncertainty is more…

2 minute read

Market Ethos

Markets dislike the flip flop

February 24, 2025. Market Ethos. Is this not becoming exhausting? Tariffs on, delayed, on again, softened for autos/agriculture then delayed again. It would appear the…

2 minute read