Today
Brent crude is back up this morning, though it remains below $100 a barrel after trading sharply lower yesterday on optimism surrounding a potential Iran agreement. Oil reversed course overnight after reports of fresh retaliatory U.S. strikes on Iranian vessels, which the U.S. said were attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. With U.S. markets closed yesterday for Memorial Day, futures have since pared back some of the earlier “risk-on” gains but remain modestly higher this morning, supported in part by another advance in mega-cap tech. Semiconductor shares with exposure to Asia are also moving higher on optimism surrounding potential technology breakthroughs from Huawei (we wrote about this in yesterday’s Launch Pad). TSX futures, meanwhile, are pointing to a softer open after the the index gained 1% yesterday to close at a fresh record high. Overseas, Asian and European equities are mostly lower, giving back some of yesterday’s advance as geopolitical uncertainty resurfaced.
Yesterday’s rally reflected some optimism that tensions in the Middle East could ease, helping reduce concerns around energy supply disruptions and inflation pressures. The MSCI All Country World (ACWI) Index closed at a record high as reports suggested negotiations to reopen the Strait and extend the ceasefire were progressing. Oil prices fell sharply on expectations that crude flows could normalize, supporting broader risk appetite after months of energy-driven volatility. Still, investors remain cautious as key sticking points remain unresolved, including Iran’s nuclear program and the durability of any ceasefire agreement. Attention now shifts back toward economic data, with U.S. PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due Thursday.
AI market cap race. Taiwan has overtaken India as the world’s fifth-largest stock market, driven largely by the massive rally in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), whose shares are up +40% this year. The rise shows how global markets continue to reward companies tied directly to the AI supply chain, benefitting semiconductor-heavy indexes in countries like Taiwan and South Korea. India, meanwhile, has faced pressure from higher energy costs, slowing earnings growth, weaker foreign inflows, and limited direct exposure to the AI buildout. TSMC now accounts for nearly 42% of Taiwan’s benchmark index, showing just how concentrated parts of the global AI trade have become.
Roadshow. Mark Carney will travel to New York this week for meetings with investors, CEOs, entrepreneurs, and capital managers as part of a push to attract capital into Canada. Carney is also scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of New York, where he is expected to outline the government’s economic strategy and progress toward its goal of generating $1 trillion in new investment over the next five years. The trip continues Carney’s efforts to position Canada as a destination for long-term global capital. The federal government recently announced plans for an investment summit in Toronto this September, hosted alongside Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Public Sector Pension Investment Board, aimed at attracting institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds. Ottawa has pledged to help unlock hundreds of billions in private capital through faster project approvals, infrastructure expansion, and greater public-private partnerships as it looks to narrow Canada’s longstanding business investment gap relative to peers like the U.S.
That’s one perspective. Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson said he is “highly confident” Alberta oil sands producers can absorb the costs tied to carbon capture, despite industry concerns that Canada’s climate policies hurt competitiveness relative to other major oil-producing nations. The comments come as Ottawa and Alberta move forward on the proposed $16.5 bln Pathways carbon capture project. The consortium, backed by major oil sands producers including Suncor Energy, Cenovus Energy, and Imperial Oil, aims to capture emissions from oil sands facilities and store them underground. The project is being linked to federal support for a new west coast oil pipeline. Industry participants say carbon pricing remains a competitive disadvantage, though some acknowledge that expanded export access to Asia through a new pipeline could help offset part of those costs.
Big refund cheques, maybe. U.S. companies are quietly scrambling to recover billions in tariff payments after courts struck down parts of Trump’s emergency tariff authority, opening the door for as much as $166 billion in potential refunds. A number of firms, including Walmart, Ford, and GM, have either applied for refunds or begun incorporating expected repayments into earnings guidance. Costco Wholesale is also among thousands of companies pursuing refunds through the courts, though the retailer said it has not yet received any payments. However, some executives remain cautious about discussing the issue publicly given political backlash from Trump and the risk of consumer lawsuits arguing tariff-related price increases should also be refunded. Analysts say any benefit to households is more likely to come through slower price increases going forward rather than direct cheques.
Tell us something we don’t already know. For steak aficionados who swear by a good ribeye but recoil at recent prices, celebrity chef Kwame Onwuachi says there are better value options hiding in plain sight. The James Beard Award-winning chef behind Tatiana says cuts like flat iron steak can be nearly as tender as tenderloin while delivering a beefier flavour, often at a fraction of the cost of premium cuts. For vegetarians, this may be a good time to stop reading. Onwuachi highlighted herb-heavy marinades and seasoning blends as an easy way to elevate barbecue flavour. Whether it’s a sweet a sweet and savoury garlic-soy marinade with a touch of honey or brown sugar or a classic balsamic rosemary flat iron steak, speaking from experience, this cut done right rarely disappoints a crowd. Might be time to fire up the BBQ.
Diversion:
It’s fair to say, he got this. 
