Launch Pad

Beyond the border. PM Mark Carney announced plans to double Canada’s exports beyond the U.S by 2035, aiming to add $300 billion in new trade as part of an effort to reduce reliance on the U.S., which buys about 75% of Canadian exports. In an evening address to students at the University of Ottawa, Carney highlighted new trade agreements with Indonesia, the UAE, the EU, and Germany, and renewed engagement with India and China. The budget will include “generational investments,” featuring a new immigration and talent strategy to attract global tech workers affected by U.S. visa fees and a climate competitiveness plan that balances clean energy goals with support for resource development. Carney described Canada as an “energy superpower” and emphasized a shift from spending to investing, pledging to balance the operating budget within three years while increasing capital investment. Economists expect the deficit to reach as high as $100 billion, but Carney said Canada has the fiscal capacity to act decisively, promising to cut waste, and improve efficiency. 

Trade talks appear to be stalling between the U.S. and China with the latest potential move according to a Reuters report. Washington is weighing broad software export restrictions on China, similar to measures used on Russia, if Beijing goes ahead with new rare-earth export curbs and port fees on U.S. ships. The curbs could cover enterprise tools like CRM, and CAD software, though details and timing are unclear. The step would add to pressure from existing tariffs and could strain a fragile U.S. economy, however both sides could be floating tough measures to gain leverage before negotiations. Trump has also threatened a 100% tariff and wider software controls starting next month, and even suggested blocking airplane parts, while still saying he expects a “good deal” with Xi. The White House and Commerce Department did not comment on the report. 

Staying on the topic of Trump and Russia, the U.S. administration is applying a new kind of pressure in a bid to end the war in Ukraine. The Trump administration imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, in its first major financial move against Putin. The Treasury department said the sanctions are a response to Moscow’s failure to pursue peace in Ukraine. The decision marks a sharp shift for Trump, who had previously resisted such measures even after meeting Putin earlier this month. The move sent Brent crude up 5% on fears of supply disruption, as Rosneft and Lukoil account for nearly half of Russia’s oil exports. Trump said “it was time” and hopes the sanctions will be short-lived if the war ends. Analysts warn the measures are unlikely to alter Putin’s strategy, though Ukraine welcomed the decision. The U.K. sanctioned the same firms last week, and the EU plans to expand its own restrictions, including an LNG import ban, later this week. 

Canadian travel to the U.S. fell sharply in August, with 2.9 million return trips marking a 29.7% drop from a year earlier, according to Stats Canada. Meanwhile, 3.2 million U.S. residents visited Canada, down 1.4% but still outnumbering Canadians travelling south, a rare occurrence outside the pandemic period. Overall, Canadians took 4.2 million trips abroad, down 21.5% from 2024, driven by a 32.6% decline in road travel and a 17% drop in air travel to the U.S., though overseas trips rose 8.6%. Visits to Canada from overseas countries climbed 9.2%, led by arrivals from Europe and Asia, particularly the U.K., France, and Germany. 

Billion-dollar valuations. The NFL approved several multibillion-dollar ownership deals yesterday, with the New York Giants becoming the world’s most valuable sports franchise after selling a 10% stake to Julia Koch and her family at a $10.3 billion valuation. The New England Patriots followed with minority stake sales valuing the team at $9 billion, while the San Francisco 49ers reached $8.6 billion. The league also approved acquiring a 10% stake in ESPN, which will begin broadcasting NFL Network as part of the agreement. These deals highlight skyrocketing sports franchise valuations since the NFL began allowing private equity ownership, with each transaction setting new records across the industry. 


Diversion: Getting you ready for World Series 
 

Copper prices rallied above $10,800 a ton after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. pointed to a near-term bullish view among traders, and a conservative production target from Chilean miner Antofagasta Plc added to worries about supply. The metal with a PhD in economics because of its many industrial uses has surged more than 20% this year, supported by a series of global mine outages and production setbacks. Prices climbed as much as 1.7% on the LME on Thursday, with gains accelerating after Antofagasta said it expects to hit the low end of its production targets for this year, and gave a target for next year that missed analysts’ estimates. According to Goldman analysts, most industry players they spoke with during the recent annual LME week conference in London expect prices to continue to test its all-time high over the coming months, with some investors planning to add to their positions if prices breach $10,900 a ton. Zinc buyers are also facing a historic squeeze on the LME as exchange inventories dwindle, but Goldman analysts said it expects shipments from China to replenish reserves.