Stay on top of market movements with the Launch Pad. Updated daily.
March 5, 2026
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Today
Equity futures are lower this morning after yesterday’s session saw a rebound and recovery of losses from earlier in the week. That steadier tone carried into Asian trading overnight, where equities rebounded after an earlier selloff tied to the Middle East conflict. South Korea led the gains as the Kospi jumped 9.6% following its worst rout on record, triggering circuit breakers and marking its strongest one-day gain in nearly two decades, while Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.9%. The rebound yesterday comes as oil prices have begun to stabilize after recent spikes that had weighed on Asian markets, particularly in energy importing economies such as South Korea. Despite the recovery in equities, markets remain focused on energy prices as the conflict involving Iran continued to push oil higher, with WTI above $77 and Brent near $83 at the time of writing, raising the risk of renewed inflation pressure. Gold also gained, Treasury yields held around 4.10%, and the U.S. dollar steadied, while Chinese stocks opened modestly higher even as Beijing set a 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5%, its lowest in decades (more on this below).
New lower goals. China is set to adopt its lowest economic growth target in more than three decades, aiming for expansion of 4.5% to 5% in 2026 as policymakers acknowledge growing structural pressures on the economy. The reduced target reflects the country’s growing acceptance of slower but more sustainable growth as it attempts to shift away from a model driven by debt-fuelled property and infrastructure investment toward consumption and more balanced drivers. By lowering the target, officials also reduce pressure to deploy aggressive stimulus despite global trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The government plans to keep fiscal support steady, maintaining a budget deficit of about 4% of GDP and continuing large bond issuance to support infrastructure and investment. Economists have noted, however, that meaningful progress towards a consumption-led economy will likely require stabilization in the struggling real estate sector.
The conflict in the Middle East has triggered higher demand for the USD as investors seek liquidity and safety, highlighting how the global financial system still relies heavily on the currency. The inflows coincide with big market moves, including steep losses in previously strong equity markets such as South Korea’s KOSPI and rising Treasury yields, as investors unwind riskier positions and move into cash. Although the dollar’s share of global foreign-exchange reserves has gradually declined from over 70% in the early 2000s to about 57% today, it still dominates global finance, appearing in 89% of foreign-exchange transactions and accounting for roughly half of international payments. Experts have also noted that growing geopolitical tensions and fragmentation in the global economy could make the transition to a more diversified currency system even more volatile, especially since no clear alternative currently exists that can provide the same level of global liquidity.
Take that back. Major U.S. tech industry groups are urging Trump to reconsider the Pentagon’s decision to label AI company Anthropic a national security supply-chain risk, warning the move could create damaging ripple effects across the tech sector. The designation followed Anthropic’s push to limit the military use of its AI tools for surveillance and autonomous weapons, prompting Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to apply a classification typically used for foreign adversaries and leading the administration to halt government use of the company’s products. Trade associations representing companies including Google, Apple, Nvidia and AMD said the decision could set a harmful precedent for the broader U.S. tech industry and undermine efforts to maintain American leadership in AI and defense technology. Anthropic has said it would challenge the designation in court, while industry groups stressed their willingness to work with the Pentagon but warned that targeting a domestic company in this way could create unintended consequences for innovation and national security partnerships.
More shuffling. PM Mark Carney has tapped Glenn Purves, currently global head of macro research at BlackRock’s Investment Institute, as deputy minister of international trade, tasking him with helping Canada expand exports beyond the U.S. Purves’ prior includes 12 years with the Canadian government, most recently as an assistant deputy minister with the Department of Finance and a stint at the International Monetary Fund. The latest shuffling is part of a broader effort by Carney to bring private‑sector finance expertise into government. He previously appointed Royal Bank’s Doug Guzman to lead a new defense investment agency. Other shuffles included Rob Stewart to oversee the creation of a financial‑crime fighting agency, and Kevin Brosseau taking on an expanded role as senior associate deputy minister of national defense in addition to being Canada’s fentanyl czar.
Wrong turn. At the U.S. Track and Field Half Marathon Championships in Atlanta, leading runner Jessica McClain lost a likely victory and a spot at the World Athletics Road Running Championships after mistakenly following the official pace vehicle off course with about 2.4 kilometers remaining. The group ran roughly one kilometer the wrong way before turning around, costing McClain about two minutes and dropping her from first place to ninth. Officials said the mistake occurred after police officers assigned to guard a key intersection left to assist a colleague who had been struck by a vehicle nearby, leaving the corner briefly unattended. Although McClain and three other runners appealed the results, the organization ruled the course had been adequately marked and declined to change the standings.
Diversion: Pay attention, will ya…
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Company news
Broadcom reported better-than-expected quarterly results and issued strong guidance, driven by rising demand for AI chips. Adjusted earnings came in at $2.05 per share on revenue of $19.31 bln, both slightly above analyst estimates, while revenue rose 29% from a year earlier and net income increased to $7.35 bln. The company said AI revenue more than doubled to $8.4 bln, fueled by demand for custom AI accelerators and networking, with executives saying Broadcom has visibility to exceed $100 bln in annual AI chip revenue by 2027. The company also announced a new $10 bln share buyback authorization through 2026 and highlighted strong demand for custom chips from major technology companies including Google, Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic, while continuing to invest in advanced chip packaging technologies to support the growing scale of AI infrastructure.
There will be more to come. Danish logistics giant, Maersk, is suspending cargo bookings in and out of ports in the Middle East as the conflict in the region continues. Maersk will no longer accept bookings in and out of United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, most of Oman, and two ports in Saudi Arabia. It will make exceptions for shipments of critical foodstuff, medicine, and other essential goods. The move effectively blocks any bookings for shipments to or from ports in the Arabian Gulf, which is separated from the Indian Ocean by the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping chokepoint. Earlier in the wek Maersk announced it would reroute cargo bound for the Suez Canal around the southern tip of Africa and suspend all vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz.
A sign of the times? Target Corp. is trimming bonuses for salaried employees for a second consecutive year as weaker sales and profit weigh on its operations. Staffers are set to receive 75% of their eligible 2025 bonuses, which is lower than the 87% of target that workers received one year ago. This year’s payout caps a rough 2025 that was hurt by weak sales, fast-changing tariffs and backlash to changes in diversity policies. Target is seeking to reverse a three-year sales slump by sharpening focus on style, shopping experience and technology. Target’s sales and adjusted earnings fell during the latest fiscal year ended Jan. 31, though the company struck a more upbeat tone for the near term. Target expects its net sales to grow this year, plans to invest billions of dollars in stores, training, marketing and other initiatives.
Morgan Stanley announced they are eliminating about 3% of its global workforce, targeting employees in its investment-banking and trading businesses as well as the wealth and asset-management operations. The dismissals affect both front- and back-office workers, and the moves are tied to individual performance as well as a change in business priorities and location strategies. Efforts to keep a lid on expenses resulted in the most job cuts in almost a decade last year at the biggest U.S. banks. The six largest firms, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, had a combined 1.09 mln employees at the end of December. That was down about 10,600 from a year earlier, to the lowest level since 2021. The last time the group eliminated so many jobs was in 2016, when headcount fell by roughly 22,000 from the previous year.
Fertilizer companies are under pressure after the Justice Department has been investigating whether several leading producers are colluding to raise prices. The companies whose conduct is under scrutiny include phosphate and potash suppliers Nutrien Ltd. and Mosaic Co., as well as CF Industries Holdings Inc., Koch Inc. and Norway’s Yara International ASA. CF Industries, Koch, Yara and Nutrien control most of the nitrogen-based fertilizer sold in the U.S. The probe is examining companies’ pricing practices for possible civil and criminal antitrust violations. The investigation is in the early stages.
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Commodities
Oil gained for the fifth consecutive day as the deepening conflict in the Middle East disrupted crude flows to key buyers, with top importer China seeking to conserve fuel. Crude benchmarks briefly pared some gains after state-run media reported that Iran had told the U.S. in their recent negotiations that it was ready to dispose of its highly enriched uranium. Beijing told major refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline, reflecting efforts to protect domestic needs, pressuring consumers abroad, while Japanese refiners asked their government to release oil from strategic petroleum reserves. Earlier this week, a major Indian processor advised customers it would suspend product exports. The main concern remains to be the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit remains effectively blocked with almost no owners willing to transit, bottling up crude supplies from Iran, as well as other Persian Gulf producers, and forcing some to start shutting-in output. Ship-tracking data is showing traffic through the strait has plummeted by well over 95%, with major crude carriers and gas tankers avoiding the route. The few ships still moving are leaving the gulf with location transponders turned off, a common practice in conflict zones. Brent’s prompt spread, a gauge that shows how much traders are willing to pay up for immediate barrels, is surging, and Middle Eastern oil futures also jumped higher this morning as well.
Gold pushed higher, as the war in the Middle East entered a sixth day with no sign of resolution, spurring demand for safer assets. Bullion rose as much as 1.1% to near $5,200 an ounce, before paring some gains as the U.S. dollar reversed earlier losses. On top of the war, and energy prices spiking, global trade is also facing higher import tariffs from the U.S. as Trump’s plan to increase a universal 10% levy to 15% will likely take effect this week. Further support for gold came yesterday from the U.S. dollar’s biggest fall in about three weeks. A weaker greenback supports gold as it makes the metal more affordable for most buyers.
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Fixed income and economics
BoC Governor Tiff Macklem warned that risks to debt markets from hedge funds and private credit may be growing faster than regulators’ ability to monitor them, particularly in an environment of elevated geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Macklem noted that while non-bank financial institutions are an established part of modern financial markets, their rapid growth and use of leverage can introduce vulnerabilities during periods of market stress. He highlighted that hedge funds now account for a large share of trading activity in Canadian government bonds and, in a sharp volatility episode, could amplify market moves if positions are unwound quickly. On private credit, officials have increasingly pointed to limited transparency around loan quality and leverage. The Bank did not signal immediate stability concerns but said the sector’s expansion warrants closer monitoring as part of its broader financial-stability framework.
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Quote of the day
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It is easier to prevent bad habits than to break them.
Benjamin Franklin
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Contributors: A. Innis, A. Nguyen, P. Kwon
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Charts are sourced to Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.
The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson Wealth Limited or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Richardson Wealth Limited is a subsidiary of iA Financial Corporation Inc. and is not affiliated with James Richardson & Sons, Limited. Richardson Wealth is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited and Richardson Wealth Limited is a licensed user of the mark. Richardson Wealth Limited, Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.
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