Today
Stock futures rose this morning as investors weigh a mix of corporate earnings, economic data, and political developments. Investors are assessing the latest jobs data out of Canada and what that means for future rate cuts. Canada’s labour market saw its steepest job loss since January 2022, excluding the pandemic. Employment fell by 40,800 in July, driven by declines in full-time positions, while the jobless rate held at 6.9%. The drop was concentrated among youth aged 15 to 24, whose unemployment rate rose to a staggering 14.6%, the highest since 2010 outside of pandemic years, and their employment rate fell to its lowest since 1998. Private-sector jobs fell by 39,000, with losses in information, culture, recreation, construction, and business support services, partly offset by gains in transportation and warehousing. Alberta and BC saw declines, Saskatchewan posted gains, and Ontario and Quebec were steady. Long-term unemployment reached its highest share since 1998, excluding the pandemic, and total hours worked slipped 0.2%. The one bright spot from this morning’s report was annual wage growth for permanent employees, which accelerated to 3.5%, outpacing expectations.
For a guy who likes gold so much, this one is surprising. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has ruled that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars are subject to Trump’s reciprocal import tariffs, overturning industry expectations of an exemption and sending shockwaves through the bullion market. The decision, impacting key suppliers like Switzerland, Hong Kong, and London, has driven gold futures to record highs, creating a steep premium over global spot prices and raising fears of disrupted trade flows. The ruling reclassifies these bars as semi-manufactured goods subject to levies, including a 39% tariff on Swiss imports, and could lead to legal challenges as traders scramble to assess the scope, potential inclusion of larger 400-ounce bars, and implications for U.S. futures market viability. Major refiners have paused U.S. shipments, and Swiss officials have failed to secure relief, deepening concerns over strained supply, limited U.S. refining capacity, and a possible long-term shift in global gold trading flows.
China’s July PMIs and inflation data highlight a persistently weak, deflationary economic environment, marked by fragile domestic demand, falling producer prices, and ongoing tariff risks. Manufacturing activity contracted further last month, while services showed only modest growth, and both consumer and producer prices reflected continued disinflation. With policy focused on stability rather than stimulus and limited room for currency devaluation due to U.S. retaliation concerns, sentiment remains low, especially considering declining home prices and labour market softness.
Donald Trump announced yesterday that he will nominate Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to temporarily fill a vacant Fed Board seat following Governor Adriana Kugler’s resignation, while the White House searches for a permanent appointee and a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2026. Miran, a critic of the Fed’s current structure who advocates greater presidential control and nationalization of regional banks, would serve until January 31, 2026, pending Senate confirmation. His short tenure would include up to four policy meetings, giving Trump potential influence over monetary policy amid calls from some officials for rate cuts. The nomination is likely to face scrutiny from Democrats, with Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott seeking clarity on transparency reforms and Senator Elizabeth Warren questioning his independence. Miran’s appointment comes as the Fed maintains interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% amid mixed signals on inflation and weakening labour market data, and as speculation grows that Trump may choose current Governor Christopher Waller (who Miran has praised) to replace Powell.
A new report reveals that U.S. companies made their biggest strides yet in returning employees to the office over the past year, with nearly 75% of surveyed firms meeting attendance goals, up from 61% last year. More companies are now monitoring and enforcing attendance policies, and the average in-office target is 3.2 days per week. Despite high vacancy rates nearing a 30-year peak, nearly half of firms express concern over the future availability of high-quality office space, which makes up only 8% of inventory. While vacancy is high, 67% of companies plan to maintain or expand their office footprint in the next three years, citing headcount growth and improved clarity around hybrid work policies.
Caught with his pants down. A man in Argentina was awarded $12,500 in damages after a Google Street View camera captured him naked in his yard in 2017, with his house number and street name visible. According to the lawsuit, the photo led to ridicule at work and made him the laughingstock of the town. While a lower court dismissed his claim, saying he was responsible for being unclothed outside, an appeals court ruled that his dignity had been flagrantly violated, noting the image was taken within his private property behind a wall taller than an average person. The judges held Google responsible for failing to prevent the exposure, despite its privacy policies that blur identifiable features.
Diversion: If only there was an easier way.
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