Launch Pad

Less things to be thankful for this U.S. Thanksgiving (according to consumers). Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell in November, dropping to 88.7, the weakest reading since April. This comes as Americans grow more worried about the labour market, income prospects, and overall economic conditions. Measures of both expectations and present conditions declined, with more consumers saying that jobs are harder to get. Income expectations also fell, reaching their lowest level since early 2023, and buying plans for major purchases are being put on hold. The decline shows just how much anxiety there is over inflation, the cooling labour market, and the overall uncertainty, bringing sentiment to levels well below those seen before the pandemic. 

The OBR got a little too eager. UK Finance Minister, Rachel Reeves got a surprise this morning when she saw her budget details released early when the Office for Budget Responsibility accidentally published its analysis. The budget revealed that she is expanding the UK’s fiscal buffer to £22 billion, more than double March’s level. The budget will be increased primarily by raising taxes by nearly £30 billion, including on gambling, high-value property, and savings income. The OBR also flagged slightly higher expected inflation and downgraded growth due to weaker productivity, while markets swung as investors scrambled to interpret the leak. Additional measures include a new tax on homes over £2 million, reduced corporate writedown allowances, and limits on pension contribution exemptions. 

Black Friday sales, here we come. Retailers in the U.S.  are expecting a record 186.9 million shoppers over the Thanksgiving–Cyber Monday stretch, but spending growth is set to slow as higher prices (thanks tariffs) push consumers to budget more carefully and hunt for deals rather than broad Black Friday splurges. Santa may not be coming to town this year though, with many shoppers cutting gift budgets due to rising costs in essentials like healthcare. While the economy is still holding up, consumers are reluctant to dip into savings. Retailers have launched early promotions, but discounts are generally smaller than in past years, with fewer deep promotions from chains like Kohl’s and Macy’s, though Walmart is offering some aggressive headline deals. Overall holiday sales are still expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, but growth will lag last year as shoppers grow more cautious. 

Friends now? Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith are set to announce a deal which would build a new oil pipeline to Canada’s west coast. The deal would grant regulatory exemptions and federal political support in exchange for tougher carbon pricing and major carbon-capture investment from oil sands producers. The agreement would represent a significant breakthrough in federal–Alberta relations and aims to address Canada’s limited access to overseas oil markets, though it faces strong opposition from BC and Indigenous leaders. The move comes as Alberta looks to increase export capacity beyond the U.S. amid rising tensions and economic constraints tied to existing pipeline limitations. 

We’ll have to wait a little while longer. Stats Canada has delayed another release of international merchandise trade data due to the U.S. government shutdown, postponing the October report that was scheduled for Dec. 4 after already pushing back the September figures. The agency said release dates are under review and will be updated once confirmed. As Canada relies on U.S. data to estimate exports heading south, the shutdown has created a backlog that continues to affect reporting even after the U.S. government reopened. Statistics Canada plans to publish supplementary estimates of exports to the U.S. this week as part of the third quarter current account and GDP releases. A similar delay occurred during the 2019 US shutdown, with the affected data eventually released. 

Turn down the heat! A new report found that cold weather can help the body burn more calories, as exposure to low temperatures activates fat and triggers shivering, which releases the fat-burning hormone irisin. Research shows that as little as 15 minutes of shivering can equal about an hour of moderate exercise, and cold-exposure methods like cryotherapy or ice-vests may further boost calorie burn. 

Copper prices are higher as Chilean producer Codelco pushed for a huge hike in its annual premium and as expectations grew for an interest-rate cut in the U.S. before year-end. Futures climbed to trade around $11,000 a ton, after rising 0.4% on Tuesday, with Codelco offering to supply some Chinese buyers at a premium of $350 a ton over LME prices for 2026 annual contracts, highlighting concerns that a rush of shipments to the U.S. may soon create shortages elsewhere. Codelco’s offers usually set the benchmark for the industry, and a $350 premium would represent a big jump from the $89 agreed for this year. Copper has rallied near 25% this year, setting a record last month, with the ascent helped by snarls in supplies from a clutch of key mines, a shortage of ore, and a wave of bets that the Trump administration will revisit a plan for a tariff on refined metal next year.