Launch Pad

Some signs of life. Canada’s labour market strengthened in October with the economy adding 66,600 jobs, marking a second straight month of strong gains. The unemployment rate now sits at 6.9%, which while still high, is better than the expected 7.1%. Job growth was driven mainly by part-time positions in retail, wholesale trade, transportation, and recreation, while construction saw the largest decline. Ontario led provincial gains with 55,000 new jobs, and youth unemployment dropped to 14.1%. Annual wage growth for permanent workers rose to 4%, also beating forecasts, though total hours worked dipped slightly. Officials from the BoC are sure to be looking closely at these numbers after recently cutting rates to 2.25%, as they consider further easing amid ongoing trade and tariff pressures.

Flying blind. Fed officials are facing more uncertainty ahead of their December rate decision after being forced to make their last policy call without key economic data due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Even when agencies resume operations, much of the missing data (including October’s jobs and inflation figures) will be based on retroactive surveys and may be unreliable, with some reports possibly skipped altogether. The data gap will surely deepen divisions within the Fed over whether the labour market is weakening enough to justify another rate cut, as officials balance concerns about slowing job growth against inflation risks. The shutdown’s impact also complicates how temporary federal furloughs will be reflected in unemployment data, while missing inflation reports leave policymakers without a clear view of price pressures. As of now, investors still expect another rate cut in December, but the lack of trustworthy data could make consensus among Fed officials that much more unlikely.

Make America Slim Again. Trump announced agreements with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to significantly reduce prices of their GLP-1 obesity drugs under a new initiative to expand access and lower drug costs. Beginning in mid-2026, Medicare will cover these treatments for the first time, with eligible patients paying $50 monthly copays, while discounted prices will also be offered to Medicaid beneficiaries and directly to consumers through a new platform, TrumpRx.gov, launching in January (guess he wanted his version of Obamacare). Under the deal, starting doses of obesity pills will cost $145 per month, while existing injections like Wegovy and Zepbound will start at $350 and gradually fall to $245. The agreement marks a major expansion of government-backed access to weight loss drugs that currently cost over $1,000 monthly.

Hmm…wonder why? China’s exports unexpectedly fell 1.1% y/y in October, the first decline since February, as a steep 25% drop in shipments to the U.S. outweighed growth in other areas of the world. The surprise contraction, against expectations for a 2.9% gain, points to weaker global demand and growing trade pressures, signalling potential headwinds for China’s already slowing economy. The country now faces a “triple whammy” of weak exports, a lingering property slump, and sluggish consumption. While a recent U.S.-China tariff reduction could offer some year-end relief, its impact may be limited given continued trade frictions and a stronger yuan making Chinese goods less competitive. Despite October’s weakness, exports have topped $3 trillion so far in 2025, driving a record $965 billion trade surplus, though economists expect growth to continue cooling into year-end.

Canadian drama politics. Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux resigned from Parliament just days after fellow Tory Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor to join the Liberals, and after Jeneroux’s office had refuted rumours that he would do the same and pledged he’d remain in the Conservative caucus. Floor-crossings are uncommon, but doing so in budget week amplifies the impact. The resignation adds tension for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in the wake of Budget 2025. Jeneroux offered no public reasons, but insiders point to caucus friction and say he had initially considered switching parties before choosing to step down. The timing has sparked speculation about deeper divisions within the Conservatives as the Liberals look to consolidate support following Tuesday’s budget release.

Loss on the field, win for the kids. The hurt is still there, and the sadness lingers, but at least there’s a silver lining. After the Dodgers beat the Blue Jays, Dodgers fans joined a growing baseball tradition by donating to Toronto’s SickKids Foundation. SickKids publicly thanked Dodgers (and Mariners) fans for pitching in. In this tradition, the winning fans give to the losing city’s children’s hospital, just as Blue Jays fans did for Seattle Children’s after eliminating the Mariners. It is a small silver lining for a fan base still feeling the loss, and a reminder that rivalry can travel beyond the field. On a lighter note, if you still want to feel a bit of the playoff magic, Addison Barger’s “sleepover sofa,” the pullout he used while staying with teammate Davis Schneider, is on display at the Marriott at Rogers Centre. Fans can take a seat and re-live the great memories or have a good cry. Your call.


Diversion: Who needs a tow truck?

Bank of Canada is cutting…jobs. The Bank of Canada is planning to eliminate hundreds of jobs, about 10% of its workforce, as part of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s bid to reduce government expenses. About 225 employees at the central bank will be affected, and the cuts will take place “over the next few months” and be completed by June. Despite the job cuts, it won’t be enough to reach the 10% budget cost savings the bank committed to by the end of 2026. The central bank is committed to achieving a 15% total budget reduction over the 2026 to 2028 period, spokesperson Paul Badertscher said in an emailed statement. “Reductions are happening in all departments,” he said. “We will make sure that the bank remains able to deliver on its mandate for Canadians.” The number of people working at the bank has surged since the Covid-19 pandemic. The Bank of Canada employed 2,350 people at the end of 2023, up from approximately 1,800 in 2019.