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May 8, 2026
  
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Today

It’s been an eventful 12 hours, with stock futures moving higher as markets digest a wave of global developments. Canadian and U.S. jobs data just released this morning will be key for central banks navigating an uncertain policy backdrop (see below paragraph for details). Tensions are flaring in the Middle East as the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire, each accusing the other of escalation, with the U.S. intercepting missiles targeting warships in the Strait of Hormuz and striking Iranian military sites responsible for the attacks. Despite the back-and-forth, Trump maintained overnight that the ceasefire remains intact, calling the strikes a “love tap” (everyone has a different love language). Meanwhile, the Court of International Trade ruled the U.S. administration cannot impose a new 10% global tariff, following an earlier Supreme Court decision to strike down tariffs enacted under emergency powers, with the court finding the proposed levies did not meet the required legal threshold.

Tale of two jobs numbers. The latest U.S. jobs numbers reinforce the narrative that the labour  market remains resilient despite elevated rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and persistent inflation pressures. Nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 last month and comes after a stronger than expected rise in March. The two consecutive months of job gains (something not seen in nearly a year) suggest employers are still hiring cautiously, while stable unemployment and moderating wage growth further support the soft-landing outlook. For the Fed, this report likely reduces urgency for near-term rate cuts, as labour conditions remain solid enough to justify patience while inflation risks remain  elevated. It was a different story in Canada, with April employment report pointing to a softer economy with job losses, unemployment rising to 6.9%, and a sharp year-to-date decline in full-time work suggesting labour market conditions are deteriorating more than previously expected. While wage growth remains relatively strong, much of that strength is concentrated among higher earners, potentially masking growing pressure on lower-income households and younger workers. This creates a difficult balancing act for the Bank of Canada, as weakening employment may argue for easing while elevated wage growth and geopolitical inflation risks complicate aggressive cuts. 

A number of executives in the U.S. are warning that consumers, particularly lower-income households, are reaching financial exhaustion as rising fuel costs and broader inflation pressures erode discretionary spending power. Higher gas prices are taking away funds that would have gone to restaurants, retail, fitness, and consumer goods, with many households drawing down savings or relying more heavily on credit to maintain spending. This dynamic poses a risk to the broader economy as consumer resilience has been one of the primary pillars supporting growth. If elevated energy costs continue, weakening consumer demand could soon slow the U.S. economy. 

Independence Day deadline…for Europeans. Trump said he would extend the EU trade agreement deadline to July 4, delaying an immediate escalation in transatlantic trade tensions, particularly around the auto sector. Still, uncertainty for markets remains high, which markets seem to have become accustomed to. By using tariff threats as leverage, Trump continues to pressure the European Union into accelerating ratification while maintaining the risk of substantial new duties if talks stall. For Europe, this creates an additional economic vulnerability at a time when growth is already pressured by energy costs and political fragility. While the temporary reprieve lowers the temperature a bit, unresolved U.S.-EU trade friction remains a dark cloud for industrial supply chains, European exporters, and broader investor confidence. 

Japan is undertaking one of its most coordinated efforts in years to stabilize the weakening yen, combining currency intervention, a more hawkish Bank of Japan stance, and potential diplomatic backing from the U.S. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s move towards tighter monetary policy has strengthened Tokyo’s ability to defend the currency by aligning central bank policy more closely with finance ministry intervention efforts. However, structural pressures, including Japan’s energy import dependence and global oil shocks, continue to weigh on the yen, meaning authorities are likely focused more on slowing depreciation rather than engineering a full reversal. While Japan’s strategy may not permanently change the yen’s long-term trajectory, stronger policy coordination could provide some stability in the near term. 

Managing quotas. Canada is working through how to allocate a new 49,000-vehicle, lower-tariff quota for Chinese-made EVs as officials consider caps on individual manufacturers to prevent market concentration. The policy opens the door for new entrants like BYD, Chery, and Geely, while also allowing incumbents like Tesla to import China-built vehicles. Initial permits are being distributed on a first-come basis, but the government is weighing a more structured allocation to ensure broader participation and support lower-priced EV adoption over time. While the quota represents less than 3% of Canada’s overall auto market, it is more meaningful within EVs.  In that context, the policy is less about overall volume and more about potentially influencing pricing and competitive dynamics. 

It’s Mother’s Day this weekend, an annual reminder of the people who can do so much with so little sleep. It’s one of the busiest times of the year for florists for good reason, accounting for about a quarter of all holiday flower purchases (it’s not too late to place your order!). A shoutout to all the moms, grandmas, aunties, stepmoms, and those who show up in ways that don’t fit a title but carry just as much weight. Thank you for holding it all together behind the scenes and in front of them, juggling work, family, and everything in between, often with little fanfare. It’s the small, quiet moments and gestures that add up to a lifetime of memories that matter most. The day is yours, enjoy the brunch, the lunch, the flowers, the cards, and whatever small moments of appreciation come your way, and do it all guilt-free. Happy Mother’s Day! 



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Company news

Telus reported first-quarter adjusted earnings edged lower but still beat forecasts. Consolidated operating revenue and other income edged down 1% to $5.0 bln, from $5.1 bln the year before, missing the $5.06 bln expected by analysts. Telus said higher consolidated service revenue growth of 1% was offset by lower Mobile equipment revenue and other income. Telus reported total subscriber growth of 262,000 in the quarter, driven by 12,000 mobile phone additions, 229,000 connected devices, and 21,000 internet customers. The company continued to invest in its network and intangible assets, though margins remained under pressure from higher labour and operating costs, alongside softer equipment revenue and lower cash balances. Telus also announced that CFO Doug French will retire on June 30, with Gopi Chande, currently CFO of Telus Digital and Telus Health, to succeed him on July 1.

Brookfield Asset Management beat earnings estimates on an adjusted basis, reported $586 mln in net income for its first quarter, up from $507 mln a year ago. Revenue totalled $1.34 bln, up from $1.08 bln in the first quarter of 2025. The boost comes as  management and incentive fee revenue totalled US$990 mln, compared to $954 mln a year ago, while carried interest income rose to $112 mln compared with $2 mln in the same quarter last year.  

Toyota shares are lower overseas after forecasting an sudden drop in operating profit as Toyota  braces for higher raw material costs on disruptions stemming from the conflict in Iran. Toyota issued an outlook for ¥3 trillion in operating income for the fiscal year, much lower than the average consensus estimate for ¥4.6 trillion, as well as ¥3.8 trillion posted in the prior period. The downgraded outlook shows how geopolitical shocks are hitting even the industry’s most profitable automaker, threatening margins through higher material, shipping and tariff costs. Suppliers warned last week that they are beginning to see shortages due to the Iran conflict, now in its third month, as Toyota said it would be difficult to offset the resulting ¥670 billion hit to its bottom line from the regional turmoil. Toyota’s top suppliers are struggling with rising raw-material costs, shortages of aluminum, resins and other basic supplies and ongoing logistical snags. Toyota is bracing itself for a squeeze on the price and supply of crucial materials that could last for months.  


Commodities

Drivers are looking ahead to some relief at the pumps with oil heading for a steep weekly loss despite the renewed clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces, as markets hold on to the speculation a deal may be happen soon. Both crude benchmarks are lower by approximately –7% on the week so far.  Faith Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned the world was losing 14 mln bpd because of the war, and ramping up production after the conflict would be gradual. He also reiterated during a visit to Canada yesterday that the IEA was prepared to take further action after members agreed in March to release 400 mln barrels.

The United Nations’ index of food-commodity prices showed global food prices climbed to their highest level in over three years. For April, prices gained 1.6% led by higher vegetable oils, meat, and cereals. The gauge was 2.5% year-over-year. This was the third consecutive month of gains, with the meat index climbing 1.2% to a record high, while the cereal price index rose 0.8% on weather concerns and expectations of reduced wheat plantings in 2026, as farmers consider sowing less fertilizer‑intensive crops. The effective shuttering of the Strait has cut off flows of essential farm inputs such as diesel and fertilizer and boosting prices. Elevated oil prices have also boosted demand for biofuels, with the UN’s vegetable oils index climbing 5.9% from March to hit its highest since July 2022. The gauge monitors raw commodity costs rather than retail prices, meaning there is a lag before the effective increase reaches consumers. Still, the gains from the March level are the first sign that food inflation is likely to pick up, even as Iran weighs a U.S.-proposed deal to end the war. 


Fixed income and economics

Want a tip? History sometimes doesn’t repeat itself. When it comes to bonds, the last time oil prices spiked due to war in 2022, the rush to get protection with inflation-linked bonds did not end well, but this time around it’s different. Out of the 24 fixed-income indexes tracked by Bloomberg, a gauge of global inflation-linked bonds is ranked first for performance in 2026, up 2%. The strategy is attracting fund flows with BlackRock Inc.’s $15 bln ETF for U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPs) pulling in its largest monthly inflows since 2021. Market metrics are also showing that the extra compensation investors demand to hold US 10-year nominal bonds versus their inflation-protected counterparts, known as the breakeven rate, rose past 2.5% this week for the first time in three years. The idea behind the strategy is that even if energy prices continue to drop, the turmoil caused by the two-month conflict will have a longer-term effect on the global economy. In the U.S., gasoline prices are near the highest since 2022, while in the Mideast damaged natural gas facilities may take years to fix. According to Morningstar, euro inflation-linked bond funds saw nearly €500 million in net inflows in March, the strongest since March 2022, marking a reversal after almost a year of outflows.


Chart of the day

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Quote of the day
 

Patience is the companion of wisdom.

Saint Augustine

Contributors: A. Innis, A. Nguyen, P. Kwon

Charts are sourced to Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson Wealth Limited or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Richardson Wealth Limited is a subsidiary of iA Financial Corporation Inc. and is not affiliated with James Richardson & Sons, Limited. Richardson Wealth is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited and Richardson Wealth Limited is a licensed user of the mark. Richardson Wealth Limited, Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

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