U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran entered a third consecutive day following the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, injecting significant uncertainty into the future of the Islamic Republic and heightening broader regional instability. The coordinated strikes, aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program, also targeted senior military officials. Iran has responded with missile attacks on Israel, U.S. bases and parts of the Gulf, disrupting regional airspace and raising risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Markets reacted swiftly with oil prices surging on supply disruption fears while equity futures declined amid rising geopolitical risk. With shipping traffic through Hormuz facing renewed threats, investors are focused on the potential for a prolonged conflict and its implications for global energy markets.
Global trade is expected to come under pressure as the world’s largest container shipping lines reroute vessels away from the Persian Gulf amid the conflict with Iran. Major carriers including MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have suspended or diverted services through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, imposed war-risk and emergency surcharges, and instructed ships already in the region to move to safer waters. Disruptions briefly affected Dubai’s Jebel Ali port, a critical global logistics hub, highlighting the vulnerability of supply chains that connects the world. Airlines have also halted flights in parts of the Gulf, increasing pressure on air and sea cargo networks. Analysts warn that prolonged rerouting could drive higher freight rates, create congestion at alternative ports, and delay any shipping through key Middle East transit routes.
PM Mark Carney concluded a four-day visit to India with a $2.6 bln uranium supply agreement between Cameco and the Indian government, covering nearly 22 million pounds of uranium from 2027 to 2035. The deal was part of $5.5 bln in agreements highlighted during the trip and coincided with the formal launch of talks toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement aimed at lifting two-way trade to $70 bln by 2030. Carney framed the engagement as part of Canada’s effort to diversify trade beyond the U.S., while India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi credited the meetings with helping to reset relations after more than two years of diplomatic strain. The visit also produced commitments to deepen co-operation in energy, critical minerals, defence and law enforcement. The diplomatic reset follows strains tied to allegations that Indian officials were connected to the 2023 killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia. Canadian authorities said that Vancouver-based consular personnel gathered intelligence related to the plot, a claim New Delhi rejects. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand declined to comment on a Globe report detailing those allegations. While official ties are improving, polling suggests Canadian opinion remains cautious, highlighting the challenges of advancing economic diversification alongside unresolved security concerns.
Job growth in the U.S. is expected to slow in February after January’s surprisingly strong hiring, with economists forecasting payroll gains of about 60,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. The anticipated cooldown follows the weakest year for job creation outside a recession since 2003, raising concerns about how long consumer spending (the main engine of the economy) can remain resilient. January retail sales data, also due Friday, may be muddied by severe winter weather, while upcoming ISM manufacturing and services surveys and the Fed’s Beige Book will offer some insight into business conditions. Globally, attention will also focus on euro-area inflation, China’s National People’s Congress, multiple Asian and Latin American data releases, and central bank commentary, all happening against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty following the conflict in Iran.
The latest earnings season highlighted a shifting dynamic in global equity markets. While we saw strong profit growth in the U.S., improving momentum in Europe and Asia have prompted investors to reconsider U.S. overweight exposure. S&P 500 earnings rose 13%, well above expectations, however fewer companies beat forecasts and forward guidance disappointed, contributing to muted U.S. stock performance while Europe’s Stoxx 600 and Asia-Pacific equities have rallied. In Asia, AI-driven demand boosted semiconductor leaders like TSMC and SK Hynix, pushing earnings revisions higher, while Europe saw strength in industrials, defense, and financials even as consumer stocks lagged. Tech giants like Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft delivered solid results but faced lukewarm market reactions amid valuation concerns and fears growth may be peaking. Strategists believe that narrowing earnings gaps and cheaper valuations abroad support diversification, especially as geopolitical tensions and energy risks add another layer of uncertainty to markets.
Passing the torch. Jimmy Pattison, the 97-year-old founder of the Jim Pattison Group, still works daily but has handed day-to-day control of his $19 billion empire to President Ryan Barrington-Foote, a 46-year-old accountant widely seen as his successor. The privately held conglomerate owns a huge mix of assets, including Canada’s largest coal export facility, supermarkets, aquariums, car dealerships and the Guinness World Records franchise, employing about 59,000 people. Though Pattison has never formally named a successor, estate plans have long been in place and Barrington-Foote says the company will remain intact with minimal disruption, with Pattison’s wealth ultimately directed to charity through the Jim Pattison Foundation. Barrington-Foote, who joined the firm at 22 and rose quickly through finance and operating roles under Pattison’s mentorship, has effectively overseen operations for several years while maintaining the founder’s core values of discipline, promotion from within and long-term ownership. This comes just months after Warren Buffett officially handed things over to his successor.
Diversion: I bet finding the bathroom is tough
