kicks off, running from July 5 to 14. The ten-day celebration brings a burst of cowboy charm to the province, complete with rodeos, pancake breakfasts, rides, and our personal favorite, live music. Giddy up!
While most in the U.S. are taking the day off, there seems to be one exception. Trump announced that his administration will begin notifying trading partners as soon as today of new U.S. tariffs, ranging from 10% to as high as 70%, with the levies set to take effect August 1. He emphasized a preference for unilateral action over lengthy negotiations, stating that letters outlining tariff rates will be sent to about a dozen countries, with more to follow. While some nations like the UK and Vietnam have reached preliminary deals, others (including South Korea, the EU, and Japan) are scrambling to finalize agreements ahead of the July 9 deadline. The planned tariff hike marks a significant escalation, potentially pushing average U.S. import duties from pre-Trump levels
Trump got his OBBB (One Big Beautiful Bill) wish with the House passing a sweeping $3.4 trillion tax cuts and spending package, marking a significant shift in U.S. economic policy. The bill slashes taxes by $4.5 trillion, imposes deep cuts to safety-net programs like Medicaid and food stamps, rolls back Biden-era clean energy initiatives, and boosts military and immigration enforcement funding. Despite internal GOP resistance, Trump managed to sway most of the dissenters, with only two Republicans voting against it. Democrats strongly opposed the bill, arguing it prioritizes tax cuts for the wealthy at the expense of vulnerable populations and risks stripping millions of healthcare. The legislation is expected to increase the federal deficit but eliminates the risk of a near-term debt default by raising the debt ceiling.
A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June pushed Treasury yields higher and erased market bets on a July Fed rate cut. Most jobs came from government hiring, while stricter immigration policies may be weighing on labor supply. These mixed data give the Fed room to delay interest rate cuts until at least September, despite political pressure from the Trump administration. Markets now expect two cuts by year-end, with upcoming inflation data likely to shape the Fed’s next move. Two-year yields jumped 10 bps and 10-year rates climbed to 4.35%, while the dollar briefly strengthened. The report showed a 147,000 increase in payrolls and a drop in unemployment to 4.1%, but weak private-sector hiring (just 74,000 jobs) pointed to a slowing labour market. While some Fed officials remain open to cuts, the market is taking a more cautious view, awaiting inflation data and the broader economic impact of Trump’s tariff policies.
Canada’s share of exports to the U.S. fell to 68.3% in May, its lowest level since 1997 outside the pandemic, amid ongoing U.S. tariffs under Trump, contributing to a fourth straight monthly decline in U.S.-bound shipments. While trade with the U.S. slowed, exports to other countries rose to record highs, led by gold to the UK, crude oil to Singapore, and aluminum and pharmaceuticals to Italy, helping narrow Canada’s trade deficit to $5.9 billion from April’s $7.6 billion. Despite this diversification, economists warn the overall export outlook remains weak due to softening global demand and declining integrated trade sectors like autos and energy.
The U.S. tech IPO market showed signs of revival in June, with five offerings (more than double the monthly average this year) providing long-awaited liquidity for venture capital firms. Highlighted by Circle’s blockbuster debut, which rallied sixfold to a $42 billion valuation, the activity marks a tentative reopening of the public markets after years of stagnation driven by high interest rates and regulatory pressure. While firms like Meta facilitated major secondary exits, such as its $14 billion stake in Scale AI, many top private companies remain on the sidelines, and recent IPOs beyond Circle have had mixed results. Venture capitalists are cautiously optimistic, preparing more companies for public offerings, but remain mindful of ongoing risks like geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and uncertain Fed policy.
Classic Joker. Djokovic notched his 99th Wimbledon win and made his 19th trip to the third round, edging past Federer for the most by any man in the Open Era. After cruising past Dan Evans in straight sets, the 38-year-old couldn’t resist poking fun at his age, saying that “the number of my appearances here is older than the top two players in the world right now,” a cheeky nod to young top seeds Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Alcaraz, who has bested Djokovic in the last two Wimbledon finals, is looking sharp and could be on track for a third straight showdown with the seasoned legend. For tennis fans, that would be another generational dream matchup. As for the Canadians, it’s been a rough go with Félix Auger-Aliassime, Leylah Fernandez, and 18-year-old Victoria Mboko all bowing out early.
Diversion: Just off the green
