In a move that should not have surprised anyone at this point, Trump extended the Iran ceasefire, helping push equity futures higher this morning. Global equities are holding near record levels as strong earnings and optimism around a prolonged Iran ceasefire support risk sentiment, even as oil prices remain volatile. While Iran’s lack of commitment to talks and continued geopolitical risks could introduce short-term volatility, investors are largely looking through the noise. On the earnings front, roughly 82% of S&P 500 companies who have reported so far have beat expectations, with AI remaining the dominant theme, with semiconductor and data-center-related firms leading gains amid strong demand for infrastructure tied to the AI buildout.
Despite the extended ceasefire, the U.S. and Iran remain in a tense deadlock. Trump is keeping the truce in place while also maintaining a naval blockade while Iran continues to restrict access through the Strait of Hormuz. As of right now, the critical waterway (responsible for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows) remains largely shut, prolonging supply disruptions and keeping energy markets under strain. Brent crude briefly topped $100 this morning, highlighting ongoing stress in energy markets and lingering geopolitical risks. With both sides far apart on key issues like sanctions, nuclear policy, and the blockade itself, negotiations have stalled, and incidents involving ships in the region highlight just how fragile the situation is. And if that wasn’t enough, the meme war between Iran and the U.S. is also heating up.
On the hot seat. Kevin Warsh pledged to maintain independence from political pressure during his confirmation hearing, pushing back against concerns he would align too closely with Trump, who has publicly called for lower interest rates. While Warsh emphasized the need for a new framework to better address persistent inflation, he avoided giving any guidance on the near-term path of rates, signaling a reluctance to commit to policy decisions. His confirmation remains uncertain due to political hurdles in the Senate, adding another layer of uncertainty to the leadership outlook at the Fed.
AI is acting as a powerful productivity enhancer rather than a widespread job destroyer. New studies have found that while AI excels at specific tasks, it struggles to fully replace workers, with adoption often driven bottom-up by employees rather than top-down. The clearest example is software development where advanced tools like agentic coding systems have significantly boosted efficiency without reducing labour demand. In fact, job postings in the field have risen 15.4% over the past year and wage growth has accelerated relative to the broader market. This suggests the sector may have already moved past the fear stage, offering a template for how AI could help other industries. At the same time, the massive investment required to build AI infrastructure is supporting employment across a wide supply chain, including energy, construction, and materials.
Who’s in. PM Mark Carney has assembled a new advisory panel on Canada–U.S. economic strategy, chaired by Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, with senior corporate representation including Darryl White (Bank of Montreal), François Poirier (TC Energy), Jonathan Price (Teck Resources), and Tracy Robinson (Canadian National Railway). Alongside the business executives will be political representation that includes Erin O’Toole, former leader of the Conservative Party, and Lisa Raitt, who served under Stephen Harper. The committee replaces Justin Trudeau’s Canada–U.S. council, and will retain select members including Jean Charest, and Unifor President Lana Payne. The group will convene April 27 as Canada heads into the upcoming Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement review, with the panel expected to provide strategic input ahead of what will likely be difficult, if not animated, negotiations with our southern neighbour.
Reciprocity. Staying on the topic of trade, Canada’s newly appointed chief trade negotiator, Janice Charette, is pressing for more balanced terms ahead of the CUSMA review, saying that recent concessions, including scrapping the digital tax, easing retaliatory tariffs, and boosting border measures, have largely been “pocketed” by the U.S. without meaningful return. Ottawa is prioritizing relief on sectoral tariffs affecting steel, aluminum, and autos as a precondition for broader negotiations. Officials are also tempering expectations on timing, framing the July 1 deadline as a checkpoint rather than a hard stop. The tone suggests a more deliberate negotiation process, with Canada looking for tangible progress while avoiding a rushed outcome.
Hurry and book your trips. U.S. travel to Canada is surging, with bookings noticeably higher and early 2026 data pointing to another 26% increase. Destinations like beautiful Tofino on Vancouver Island are seeing a sharp rise in demand, with some properties reporting significant increases in U.S. visitors. The reasons are plentiful. A weaker Canadian dollar, proximity, and a shift in travel preferences are all helping to drive travel northbound. Americans are looking for value, less crowded destinations, and a welcoming experience, something Canada is well known for, as we are globally known for our niceness. At the same time, the country’s natural assets and relatively under-visited landscapes are pulling demand away from crowded U.S. and European hotspots. The result is a reversal in cross-border travel flows, with Canadians cutting U.S. trips sharply while American visitors head north in growing numbers.
Diversion: Maybe this ump needs to recalibrate
