Stock futures are mildly lower this morning, 24 hours ahead of “Liberation Day”, the day the Trump administration announces more levies to address nations who seemingly “rip off” America. For global trading partners, and even those that reside stateside, the day will unlikely unlock a sense a freedom but may ease the burden of uncertainty that has been hanging over businesses and consumers like a dark cloud since Trump took office. Overseas, European indexes were up, following North America’s late afternoon rally that saw the S&P 500 turnaround from earlier losses to end the day positive. Still, it was a rough month for North American indexes, with the S&P 500 down -5.75% and the Nasdaq down –8.2%, while the TSX finished –1.8% lower for the month (although it remains in the green YTD).
Uncertainty over tariffs and tax policy is causing businesses to delay investment, dampening economic growth forecasts for 2025. After an initial post-election surge in optimism, companies (especially manufacturers and small businesses with global supply chains) are now pausing capital expenditures due to unclear trade rules and unresolved tax provisions like bonus depreciation. Surveys from regional Federal Reserve banks and business groups show declining capital spending expectations, reinforcing concerns that uncertainty is stalling expansion and innovation. While Trump argues his policies will ultimately boost investment, businesses remain in wait-and-see mode, unwilling to commit until the economic outlook stabilizes.
If you want to lower the deficit, it may not be a good idea to fire all the people who collect the money. Slower-than-expected U.S. tax collections and higher refunds are straining government revenue, raising concerns about an earlier-than-expected breach of the debt ceiling, possibly by May or June. The U.S. Treasury’s cash balance fell to $281 billion, with only $207 billion in extraordinary measures left to meet financial obligations. Political uncertainty in Washington, including IRS staffing cuts and a lack of a congressional plan to address the debt ceiling, has added to the risk. While April and June tax payments will provide temporary relief, experts warn of potential market turmoil if Congress delays action or if DOGE continues to lay off workers.
The “Buy Canadian” movement, driven by rising anti-U.S. sentiment amid Trump’s trade policies, is reshaping Canadian retail shelves. One example can be seen in the diaper business, with California-based Parasol Co having its expansion plans halted, while Canadian diaper maker Irving Personal Care saw demand surge. The movement is also impacting U.S. whiskey, citrus exports, and kombucha sales, with companies like Demeter Fragrances abandoning Canadian expansion plans. Meanwhile, Canadian manufacturers like Grime Eater are benefiting as retailers consider reducing U.S. competitors’ shelf space, signaling a potential long-term shift in North American trade dynamics.
That’s one way to improve office vacancy rates. Canada’s downtown office vacancy rate declined to 19.9% in Q1, marking the first drop since 2020, driven by over 400,000 square feet of office space being converted or demolished. Aging office buildings in cities like Montreal, Edmonton, and Calgary are increasingly repurposed for residential, life-science labs, and educational use, addressing urban housing shortages. A slowdown in office construction, with only one new building completed and no new projects started, has also contributed to reducing office space oversupply, leaving the active development pipeline at its lowest level in 20 years.
Shares of U.S. drugmakers fell yesterday following reports that FDA vaccine chief Peter Marks resigned amid a federal health agency overhaul by the Trump administration. Concerns over potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s plans to reshape public health agencies, including possible mass firings, have pressured biotech stocks. Vaccine makers like Novavax and BioNTech dropped 6-8%, while gene therapy firms saw sharper declines. Marks, a key figure in fast-tracking rare disease treatments, criticized Kennedy’s vaccine stance in his resignation letter. His departure, following another FDA leader’s exit, adds uncertainty for investors, with concerns that his successor may align with Kennedy’s controversial views.
Where’s the beef? A fake trucking company stole 80,000 pounds of beef worth $350,000 in Tennessee last week. The scam was uncovered when two customers reported missing shipments, prompting the meatpacking plant to investigate. The supposed subcontractor stopped responding to emails, and police found that the trucking company’s provided information was false. The stolen beef was meant for deliveries to Kentucky and Michigan, but the drivers’ identities were never verified. Authorities are now investigating the fraud. If you’ve seen this man, please report him to the proper authorities.
Diversion: Cameraman is savage
