Launch Pad

Stocks are mixed this morning with U.S. futures lower, and TSX futures higher. Markets are digesting the final batch of key economic data for the year including delayed quarterly GDP data through September, pushed back by the U.S. government shutdown, and Conference Board consumer confidence numbers due later this morning. Christmas came early for the TSX yesterday, with Canadian equities hitting a new high helping the index close above 32,000 for the first time, led by a strong rally in materials as gold and silver also hit record highs. Stocks in the U.S. also started the week higher, led by a rebound in tech shares that lifted nearly all S&P 500 sectors and pushed the S&P 500 and Dow to within 1% of their recent record highs 

Economic growth accelerated in the U.S. in Q3, with real GDP growing at a 4.3% annualized pace (the fastest in two years) driven by resilient consumer spending, solid business investment and more stable trade conditions. This followed an already-strong 3.8% expansion in the prior quarter. The data, released later than usual due to the government shutdown, highlights continued momentum in the U.S. economy despite policy uncertainty and mixed sentiment among the population. Closer to home, Canada’s economy returned to modest growth in November, with advanced estimates for November showing GDP rising 0.1% after a 0.3% contraction in October, underscoring resilience despite the drag from U.S. tariffs. The October decline, which was in line with expectations, reflected weakness across both goods-producing and services-producing industries, while the November rebound suggests stabilization rather than renewed momentum. Against this backdrop of steady but uncertain growth, the BoC has held its policy rate at 2.25% and signaled that it is likely to keep rates on hold in the near term unless the outlook shifts meaningfully. 

Staying put. A new report found that fewer Canadians are changing jobs, with the monthly job-switching rate falling to about four per 1,000 workers, down from roughly seven before the pandemic. This comes as job vacancies decline, housing costs rise, and economic uncertainty makes workers more cautious. Economists warn this slowdown is reducing career mobility, especially for young and early-career workers which can slow wage and productivity growth. While fewer job changes can reflect improved job satisfaction, the broader backdrop shows a weakening labour market, with vacancies continuing to fall for more than two years and are now roughly half their 2022 peak. Housing constraints, weaker confidence, and ongoing shocks (including the pandemic, inflation, and trade tensions) are also discouraging workers from moving. 

A tale of two safe havens. This year saw some classic safety trades fail to protect, while others literally shined.  Precious metals and defense stocks were the clear winners this year amid a turbulent global backdrop, with gold rising more than 60% (its strongest gain since the late 1970s) while silver and platinum more than doubled, supported by central-bank demand and their role in the tech build-out. On the other hand, other traditional safe havens disappointed as government bonds delivered weak or negative real returns, defensive equity sectors lagged growth, and oil prices fell. Haven currencies also diverged, with the Swiss franc holding gains while the yen and U.S. dollar weakened, and volatility strategies failed to pay off. Overall, caution was penalized this year, with investors rewarded for exposure to metals and growth assets rather than the typical safety plays. 

Wrapping up the year with a bow. Global equities delivered impressive returns in 2025, with some markets posting double-digit gains and regions like Europe, Japan, EM, and the UK benefiting from improving growth, fiscal support, and more attractive valuations. The results showed that investors did not need to solely rely on the U.S. (and just tech) for growth. Sector-wise, opportunities moved beyond tech, with financials seeing solid gains, healthcare trading at a rare discount despite resilient earnings, and AI-related infrastructure, utilities, and clean energy providing indirect exposure to AI without the hefty price tags and volatility. While the AI boom may continue, strategists note that investors who are concerned of elevated valuations may still have room to participate while also diversifying by region and sectors. 

Tariffs not working for everyone, no cheers here. Jim Beam, one of the largest makers of American whiskey globally, is shutting down bourbon production at one of its Kentucky distilleries for a year.  Trump’s trade war with Canada has contributed to the decline in U.S. liquor sales after Canada boycotted American booze, and more young adults are cutting back on the consumption of alcohol. Jim Beam, owned by Suntory Global Spirits, is one of Kentucky’s biggest bourbon producers, and the $9 billion whiskey bourbon industry has been struggling to manage its abundant supply of liquor against the drop in demand. Perhaps, this will be part of the CUSMA talks that will be happening in early 2026.   

Copper rallied to a record above $12,000 a ton as mine outages and trade disruptions tied to Trump’s tariff agenda upended global supply chains, setting the metal on course for its biggest annual gain since 2009. A rush by traders to ship copper into the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs has tightened availability elsewhere, sparking a bidding war even as demand in China (which consumes about half of global supply) has softened. Supply risks have added to the rally, with mine disruptions across the globe and warnings from major banks that output is falling adding to concerns. Analysts now expect the global copper market to face its largest shortfall in more than two decades next year, raising expectations that prices can rise further despite some skepticism that prices have run ahead of current fundamentals.