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December 11, 2025
  
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Today


Stock futures are lower this morning after central banks on both sides of the border delivered policy decisions in line with market expectations. The positive reaction to yesterday’s moves however is being overshadowed by renewed AI jitters after Oracle reported revenue and operating income for its most recent quarter below analysts’ expectations while raising its spending forecast, including heavier investment tied to AI-related infrastructure (details in company news below). The results have investors questioning how quickly rising AI spend will contribute to the bottom line. Oracle shares tumbled in premarket trading, dragging S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures lower, with TSX futures following the move.

As expected, the Fed delivered its third straight quarter-point rate cut yesterday, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.5%–3.75%. While the cut was expected by markets, the committee appeared very divided, with a total of three dissents, the most since 2019. Policymakers disagreed over whether stubborn inflation or a weakening labour market poses the bigger risk, and despite the cut, officials maintained expectations for only one additional rate reduction next year. The Fed also revived short-term Treasury purchases to maintain enough bank reserves and adjusted its statement to signal uncertainty about the timing of future cuts. Economic forecasts showed slightly stronger growth and moderating inflation ahead, while political pressure and delayed economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the outlook. 

The BoC also delivered no surprises and held its policy rate at 2.25% yesterday, saying borrowing costs remain appropriate as the economy shows greater resilience than expected despite U.S. trade tensions. Governor Tiff Macklem noted strong recent data, including solid job gains and revised GDP figures, though policymakers still see inflation remaining near their 2% target. The bank signaled a cautious, wait-and-see stance, emphasizing elevated uncertainty, muted hiring intentions, and weakness in trade-sensitive sectors, while suggesting rate cuts are unlikely without a significant deterioration in the outlook. 

This may be a growing trend with global interest-rate expectations moving towards a more hawkish outlook. It’s not just the BoC but recent signals from other central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia and ECB suggests rate hikes may not be off the table next year, reversing earlier expectations of more cuts. Inflation remains elevated and growth is staying resilient, adding to this, many central banks have executed unusually quick easing cycles (outside of recession), historically a recipe for renewed overheating and further tightening. Markets, which have gotten comfortable with the recent low volatility, are now reassessing risks, putting pressure on currencies like the yen and sparking sell-offs in global bond markets, from Japan to Australia and Canada. 

China’s consumer inflation rose to a 21-month high in November due to a rebound in food prices, but underlying demand remains weak as core inflation stayed low and producer prices fell for the third straight year, signaling continued deflationary pressures. Despite meeting its 5% growth target with help from policy support and solid exports, China continues to struggle with soft domestic spending and lingering effects from the global trade war. Analysts expect deflation to continue next year and say officials must implement even more stimulus to revive demand, including supporting household consumption, stabilizing the property sector, and improving social safety nets. 

Having 10 kids is expensive, which could be why NFL great Philip Rivers is putting his cleats back on. After the Colts lost starting quarterback Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles and backup Riley Leonard for a knee injury, coaches reached out to retired quarterback Philip Rivers about a comeback. With limited alternatives, playoff hopes slipping, and a little side of desperation, Indianapolis brought the 44-year-old in for a workout, where they were surprised by his skills despite being out of the league since 2020. Rivers, now the NFL’s oldest player and a Hall of Fame semifinalist, agreed to join the practice squad despite risks to his candidacy and concerns about his conditioning (you can’t blame him for packing on a few lbs post-retirement). If all goes according to plan, Rovers will be playing this Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. 


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Company news


Oracle Corp. shares are under pressure after reporting a jump in spending on AI data centers and other equipment, while rising outlays are taking longer to translate into cloud revenue. Fiscal second-quarter cloud sales increased 34% to $7.98 bln, while revenue in the company’s closely watched infrastructure business gained 68% to $4.08 bln. Both numbers fell just short of analysts’ estimates. Analysts are raising doubts about the costs and time required to develop AI infrastructure at such a massive scale. Oracle has taken out significant sums of debt and committed to leasing multiple data center sites. Investors want to see Oracle turn its higher spending on infrastructure into revenue as quickly as it has promised. Capital expenditures, a metric of data center spending, were about $12 billion in the quarter, an increase from $8.5 bln in the preceding period. Analysts anticipated $8.25 bln in capital spending in the quarter. Oracle now expects capital expenditures will reach about $50 bln in the fiscal year ending in May 2026, a $15 bln increase from its September forecast.

Suncor Energy released its 2026 corporate guidance, setting the stage for the next phase of free funds flow growth and long-term shareholder value creation. Annual upstream production is expected to be between 840,000 to 870,000 bbls/d in 2026, representing growth of more than 100,000 bbls/day compared to 2023 and exceeding targets outlined at the 2024 Investor Day. Annual refining utilization is expected to average between 99% and 102%, reflecting continued improved performance across the company’s entire downstream portfolio. These outlooks reflect the sustainability of and company’s confidence in the material gains achieved in 2024 and 2025. The outlooks also reflect planned turnaround and maintenance activities, including a major turnaround at Firebag and scheduled maintenance at Base Plant, Syncrude, and Fort Hills. Downstream utilization incorporates planned turnarounds at all four of the company’s refineries.  

OpenAI and its investor Microsoft Corp. were sued over a Connecticut murder-suicide in the latest case to blame the popular ChatGPT chatbot for dangerous psychological manipulation of users. The lawsuit turns on the actions of a 56-year-old man who lived with his 83-year-old mother in Greenwich, Connecticut, and had been conversing for months with the chatbot over his fear that he was under surveillance and people were trying to kill him. In response to continuing reports of harmful chatbot use, OpenAI has announced changes to make ChatGPT better at recognizing and responding to different ways that people may express mental distress. The company also said it would strengthen safeguards around conversations about suicide, which it said could break down after prolonged chats. 


Commodities


Oil prices are down to the lowest level since October, tracking wider losses in equities and other risk assets. Pressure from disappointing earnings offset the rising risk of escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. In what looked like a scene from a movie, the U.S. released footage of U.S. forces intercepting and executing a seizure warrant for a crude oil tanker used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran, in a move the Venezuelan government called an “act of piracy.” The OPEC member holds the world’s largest oil reserves and exported around 586,000 bpd last month, which mostly went to China. The increased tensions come against a bearish backdrop for crude, as more production from OPEC+ and the Americas is set to overwhelm tepid demand growth and lead to a glut. The International Energy Agency offered some optimism from the gloom, trimming its estimate of a record glut for the first time since May, though it still sees a major oversupply.

Gold prices are higher for a third day, just shy of a record high, after the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected interest-rate cut yesterday, while silver climbed to a record high. The Fed lowered rates for a third straight meeting, keeping its outlook for just one more cut in 2026, but subtly changing the wording of its statement to hint at greater uncertainty around future reductions. A dovish Fed is positive for precious metals, which typically benefit from low rates as they don’t pay interest. Gold has surged more than 60% this year and silver has more than doubled, with both metals on track for their best annual performances since 1979. The scorching rallies have been underpinned by elevated central-bank buying and a retreat by investors from sovereign bonds and currencies. According to the World Gold Council, holdings in gold-backed ETFs have risen every month this year except May.  


Fixed income and economics


With the Fed and BoC having made their rate announcements yesterday, the attention now shifts to the ECB who will be releasing their new forecasts next week at their rate meeting on December 18. According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the outlook will probably feature a more optimistic outlook for economic growth as the 20-nation nation euro area has been more resilient than feared to the U.S. tariff onslaught. She also highlighted that the EU hadn’t retaliated to those measures, while the euro hasn’t depreciated and the labour market remained robust. Policymakers have grown increasingly convinced that interest rates can be left unchanged for the foreseeable future, thanks in part to the economy’s resilience, as the latest GDP reading showed the economy grew 0.3% in the third quarter, more than initially estimated.


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Quote of the day

 

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Contributors: A. Innis, A. Nguyen, P. Kwon

Charts are sourced to Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson Wealth Limited or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Richardson Wealth Limited is a subsidiary of iA Financial Corporation Inc. and is not affiliated with James Richardson & Sons, Limited. Richardson Wealth is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited and Richardson Wealth Limited is a licensed user of the mark. Richardson Wealth Limited, Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

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