Launch Pad

Stay on top of market movements with the Launch Pad. Updated daily.

October 23, 2025
  
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Today


Stock futures are mixed this morning with U.S. equities pointing down, while stocks in Canada are looking to open higher. A batch of company earnings continues today with American Airlines and Blackstone before the bell and Intel after the bell. Oil rose again this morning, after surging yesterday following Trump’s announcement of new sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies. Overseas, European natural gas prices rose alongside shares in oil companies like BP and Shell. Investors are also digesting the latest economic data which showed Canadian retail sales rising modestly in Q3, helped by strong auto sales despite economic headwinds from U.S. tariffs on the auto sector. While overall retail receipts fell 0.7% in September after a 1% gain in August, sales were up 0.3% for the quarter, driven by solid demand at motor vehicle and parts dealers. Auto sales climbed 8.2% year-to-date, outpacing broader retail growth as consumers rushed to buy cars ahead of potential U.S. trade restrictions. Despite inflation ticking up to 2.4% in September, traders expect the BoC to cut rates next week to support slowing growth. Consumer spending remains uneven, with strength among wealthier households offsetting weakness among younger and lower-income Canadians.

Beyond the border. PM Mark Carney announced plans to double Canada’s exports beyond the U.S by 2035, aiming to add $300 billion in new trade as part of an effort to reduce reliance on the U.S., which buys about 75% of Canadian exports. In an evening address to students at the University of Ottawa, Carney highlighted new trade agreements with Indonesia, the UAE, the EU, and Germany, and renewed engagement with India and China. The budget will include “generational investments,” featuring a new immigration and talent strategy to attract global tech workers affected by U.S. visa fees and a climate competitiveness plan that balances clean energy goals with support for resource development. Carney described Canada as an “energy superpower” and emphasized a shift from spending to investing, pledging to balance the operating budget within three years while increasing capital investment. Economists expect the deficit to reach as high as $100 billion, but Carney said Canada has the fiscal capacity to act decisively, promising to cut waste, and improve efficiency. 

Trade talks appear to be stalling between the U.S. and China with the latest potential move according to a Reuters report. Washington is weighing broad software export restrictions on China, similar to measures used on Russia, if Beijing goes ahead with new rare-earth export curbs and port fees on U.S. ships. The curbs could cover enterprise tools like CRM, and CAD software, though details and timing are unclear. The step would add to pressure from existing tariffs and could strain a fragile U.S. economy, however both sides could be floating tough measures to gain leverage before negotiations. Trump has also threatened a 100% tariff and wider software controls starting next month, and even suggested blocking airplane parts, while still saying he expects a “good deal” with Xi. The White House and Commerce Department did not comment on the report. 

Staying on the topic of Trump and Russia, the U.S. administration is applying a new kind of pressure in a bid to end the war in Ukraine. The Trump administration imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, in its first major financial move against Putin. The Treasury department said the sanctions are a response to Moscow’s failure to pursue peace in Ukraine. The decision marks a sharp shift for Trump, who had previously resisted such measures even after meeting Putin earlier this month. The move sent Brent crude up 5% on fears of supply disruption, as Rosneft and Lukoil account for nearly half of Russia’s oil exports. Trump said “it was time” and hopes the sanctions will be short-lived if the war ends. Analysts warn the measures are unlikely to alter Putin’s strategy, though Ukraine welcomed the decision. The U.K. sanctioned the same firms last week, and the EU plans to expand its own restrictions, including an LNG import ban, later this week. 

Canadian travel to the U.S. fell sharply in August, with 2.9 million return trips marking a 29.7% drop from a year earlier, according to Stats Canada. Meanwhile, 3.2 million U.S. residents visited Canada, down 1.4% but still outnumbering Canadians travelling south, a rare occurrence outside the pandemic period. Overall, Canadians took 4.2 million trips abroad, down 21.5% from 2024, driven by a 32.6% decline in road travel and a 17% drop in air travel to the U.S., though overseas trips rose 8.6%. Visits to Canada from overseas countries climbed 9.2%, led by arrivals from Europe and Asia, particularly the U.K., France, and Germany. 

Billion-dollar valuations. The NFL approved several multibillion-dollar ownership deals yesterday, with the New York Giants becoming the world’s most valuable sports franchise after selling a 10% stake to Julia Koch and her family at a $10.3 billion valuation. The New England Patriots followed with minority stake sales valuing the team at $9 billion, while the San Francisco 49ers reached $8.6 billion. The league also approved acquiring a 10% stake in ESPN, which will begin broadcasting NFL Network as part of the agreement. These deals highlight skyrocketing sports franchise valuations since the NFL began allowing private equity ownership, with each transaction setting new records across the industry. 


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Company news


Rogers Communications beat third-quarter expectations as strong wireless and media performance boosted results, helped by its expanded sports holdings and the Toronto Blue Jays’ playoff run. The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.37 per share, above analyst forecasts of $1.24, and raised its full-year free cash flow outlook to between $3.2 billion and $3.3 billion. Media revenue rose 26% to $753 million following Rogers’ acquisition of a controlling 75% stake in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment, adding assets such as the Toronto Raptors and Maple Leafs. Its wireless division added 62,000 postpaid subscribers and reduced customer churn, while cable revenue grew modestly by 1%.

Blackstone beat earnings estimates and reported distributable earnings surged 48% in the third quarter, fueled by a burst of investment exits from its private equity arm. Blackstone more than doubled its haul from selling investments in the third quarter compared with a year earlier. It also took three companies public. The money manager, the first among its biggest peers to report quarterly results, is the largest owner of commercial real estate, a credit giant and a major hedge fund allocator. Its private equity arm’s string of exits mitigated muted returns in real estate. The rebound signals that an era of slumping valuations and higher financing costs, which kept buyout dealmakers on the sidelines, is receding. An artificial-intelligence boom and expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates are fueling optimism.  

Tesla reported a 12% rise in Q3 revenue to $28.1 billion, marking its first growth after two quarters of declines, but its stock fell nearly 5% as earnings missed expectations and expenses rose. Adjusted earnings came in at 50 cents per share, below the 54 cents forecast, while net income dropped 37% to $1.37 billion due to lower EV prices, higher R&D costs, and reduced regulatory credit sales. The expiration of U.S. EV tax credits briefly boosted demand, but Tesla continues to face headwinds from tariffs, rising costs, and declining European sales amid consumer backlash and stiff competition. Although Tesla is expanding into energy storage and robotaxi services, investors were disappointed by the lack of concrete guidance and slow progress on key projects such as Full Self Driving, the Cybercab, and the Semi truck. 

Honeywell International raised its full-year profit outlook and reported third-quarter earnings that topped expectations, boosted by the company’s aerospace unit ahead of a planned breakup. The results were the latest to highlight momentum for commercial aerospace manufacturers after GE Aerospace and RTX Corp. reported similar gains earlier this week. Sales at Honeywell’s aerospace unit jumped 15% in the most recent quarter. Honeywell plans to spin off its advanced materials unit in October, ahead of a broader breakup separating its aerospace and automation businesses. The strategy is on track to be completed in the second half of next year, resulting in three publicly traded companies. 

American Airlines Group reported a smaller-than-expected loss, driven by a rebound in business and leisure travel in the domestic market.  American Airlines is forecasting a return to profitability in the fourth quarter, with an adjusted EPS range of 45-75 cents, higher than the 33 cent prediction by analysts. American previously lifted its forecast for 2025 capital expenditures by $500 million based on earlier-than-planned aircraft deliveries. The company was set to take delivery of 32 new aircraft from July through the end of the year. 


Commodities


Gold is slightly higher, paring some of the week’s steep losses in a market that flipped from widespread bullish sentiment to concerns that prices were overbought. Gold has seen losses of about -6% over the previous two sessions. Investors continued to weigh the prospect that a U.S.-China trade deal could relieve some of the geopolitical tensions that have bolstered demand for haven assets like gold in recent weeks.  The price slump coincided with a large outflow from gold-backed ETFs, which on Wednesday posted the biggest single-day decline in their holdings in five months. The so-called debasement trade, in which investors avoid sovereign debt and currencies to protect themselves from runaway budget deficits, has been a driver of gold’s rally since mid-August. The metal is still up about 55% this year, with prices also supported in recent weeks by bets the Federal Reserve will make at least one quarter-point cut to interest rates by the end of the year.

Copper prices rallied above $10,800 a ton after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. pointed to a near-term bullish view among traders, and a conservative production target from Chilean miner Antofagasta Plc added to worries about supply. The metal with a PhD in economics because of its many industrial uses has surged more than 20% this year, supported by a series of global mine outages and production setbacks. Prices climbed as much as 1.7% on the LME on Thursday, with gains accelerating after Antofagasta said it expects to hit the low end of its production targets for this year, and gave a target for next year that missed analysts’ estimates. According to Goldman analysts, most industry players they spoke with during the recent annual LME week conference in London expect prices to continue to test its all-time high over the coming months, with some investors planning to add to their positions if prices breach $10,900 a ton. Zinc buyers are also facing a historic squeeze on the LME as exchange inventories dwindle, but Goldman analysts said it expects shipments from China to replenish reserves. 



Fixed income and economics


UK inflation unexpectedly held steady at 3.8% in September, defying expectations for a rise and fuelling bets that the Bank of England could cut interest rates before year-end. Falling food prices and lower costs for live music offset higher fuel prices, while services inflation remained unchanged at 4.7%. The data eased some concerns about persistent price pressures amid a weakening economy and soft labour market, leading traders to price in a roughly 70% chance of a December rate cut. The pound fell, and gilt yields dropped as markets reacted to the news. Economists noted that while inflation remains well above the BOE’s 2% target, the figures suggest price pressures are cooling, offering some relief to households and the government ahead of the Nov. 26 budget. 

Chart of the day

 

Markets


Quote of the day

 

A somebody was once a nobody who wanted to and did

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Contributors: A. Innis, A. Nguyen, P. Kwon

Charts are sourced to Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson Wealth Limited or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Richardson Wealth Limited, Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Richardson Wealth is a trademark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited used under license.1

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