We can talk about a lot of things this morning, but it’s today’s SpaceX IPO that is on many investors’ minds. The timing appears favourable, with futures in positive territory and building on yesterday’s rally. For SpaceX, its employees, and existing shareholders, it could hardly be better (more on that below). One person, in particular, stands to benefit. Expected to raise roughly $75 billion, the largest IPO in history would value SpaceX at nearly $1.8 trillion and leave Elon on the cusp of becoming the world’s first trillionaire, at least on paper. SpaceX, the rocket maker, satellite operator, AI contender, and owner of X, will trade under the ticker SPCX (careful with the fat fingers). Exactly when trading begins remains uncertain, as IPOs typically start trading later in the day after underwriters match buyers and sellers in an effort to reduce volatility. Investors may also gain exposure sooner than they realize, whether they want it or not. Recent rule changes by Nasdaq and FTSE Russell will allow large IPOs to enter some indexes within weeks of listing, allowing passive ETFs that track those benchmarks to become shareholders shortly after SpaceX goes public. S&P 500 investors, however, will likely have to wait at least a year.
Signs of easing geopolitical tensions sent oil prices down nearly -3%, helping lift stocks and bonds in yesterday’s trading session. The S&P 500 rose 1.8%, the TSX closed 1.5% higher, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.5%, led by a strong recovery in semiconductor stocks following last week’s selloff. Treasury yields also moved lower as investors reduced expectations for further Fed tightening, with rate markets pushing the timing of a fully priced rate hike into 2027. Investors also looked past a hotter-than-expected producer inflation report because core inflation came in slightly below forecasts, reinforcing the view that rising energy costs have not yet spread broadly through the economy. Gold also rose 3.4%, its biggest one-day gain in more than two months. While easing geopolitical tensions would typically weigh on safe-haven demand, lower bond yields and a weaker U.S. dollar proved to be the more important drivers of the move.
Snail mail. Despite repeated claims from Trump that a U.S.-Iran agreement is imminent, negotiations remain slow, fragmented, and heavily dependent on intermediaries according to a Bloomberg report. Messages reportedly take days to move between the two sides, with proposals passing through multiple governments and, in some cases, human couriers used to conceal the whereabouts of Iran’s leadership. U.S. officials have expressed frustration with the pace, saying responses can take nearly a week to arrive. The cumbersome process is the result of both security concerns and the complexity of the issues involved, including sanctions, frozen assets, and Iran’s nuclear program. While both sides appear interested in extending the ceasefire and avoiding a wider conflict, the path to an agreement remains less straightforward than recent public comments may suggest.
China’s space industry is treating the SpaceX IPO as a validation event that could unlock funding for its own space sector. Several Chinese companies, including LandSpace and CAS Space, are pursuing IPOs as investors bet on the long-term potential of reusable rockets and satellite constellations, but analysts are noting how much these companies are lagging at this moment. Unlike SpaceX, which generates billions in revenue from both launches and its Starlink business, Chinese competitors haven’t yet successfully recovered and reused rockets at scale and currently generate only modest revenues. China’s two major satellite-constellation projects, Guowang and Qianfan, have only a few hundred satellites in orbit compared with Starlink’s roughly 10,400, with estimates that China may not reach Starlink’s current scale until around 2033. While strong government support and domestic demand could fuel growth, experts believe China’s ecosystem lacks the vertically integrated model that makes SpaceX profitable, meaning valuations for Chinese space firms are unlikely to match SpaceX unless they achieve major breakthroughs in reusable launch technology and satellite deployment.
The Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% next week. While the consensus is for rates to remain steady through the end of 2026, opinion is divided on what comes next, with nearly 40% of economists now expecting at least one rate hike as persistent energy-price shocks from the Iran war push inflation higher. Inflation is projected to peak around 3.6% later this year, well above the Bank’s 2% target, before gradually easing, while economic growth remains modest at roughly 1% annually. Policymakers have expressed concern that higher energy costs could spread more through the economy, similar to worries now driving tighter policy at the ECB, who raised rates just yesterday. Markets are now pricing in at least two additional ECB rate increases, making the ECB the first major central bank to actively tighten policy in response to the latest inflation surge, while the BoC, Fed, and BOE remain on hold. For investors, the ECB hike is supportive for the euro and European bank stocks, but it raises risks for European economic growth and reinforces the global narrative that central banks may need to keep interest rates higher for longer if energy-driven inflation continues.
Cooking up some capital gains. SpaceX’s IPO is expected to create one of the largest employee wealth events in corporate history, with estimates that more than 4,000 current and former employees could become millionaires and roughly 400 could hold stakes worth over $100 million. The potential gains stems from a long-standing compensation strategy at SpaceX that granted stock options for anyone from engineers and executives to welders, cooks, and cafeteria staff. At the expected IPO price of $135 per share and a valuation near $1.8 trillion, many employees who received options at exercise prices around $37–$42 stand to realize some healthy gains. However, much of that wealth will initially remain on paper due to lockup restrictions that typically prevent sales for several months after listing, which means employees may be in for a wild ride.
North America takes centre stage. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is underway, marking the first time the tournament has been hosted by three nations: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Here are a few nuggets to get you started. The event features a record 48 teams and 104 matches, up from 64 in previous tournaments. The new format divides teams into 12 groups of four, with the top two teams from each group and the eight best third-place finishers advancing to a Round of 32. Mexico becomes the first country to host the World Cup three times. The opening match saw host nation Mexico defeat South Africa 2-0 in front of a full crowd in Mexico City, while South Korea opened its campaign with a 2-1 comeback victory over Czechia. For Canadian football fans, attention now turns to Toronto, where the national team plays its first match against Bosnia and Herzegovina this afternoon at Toronto Stadium before heading west to Vancouver to face Qatar on June 18 and Switzerland on June 24. Canada will host 13 matches across Toronto and Vancouver, including two knockout-round matches. Early tourism data suggests both Canadian host cities are among the strongest-performing markets, benefiting from lower travel costs, easier accessibility, and fewer travel-related hurdles relative to some U.S. venues.
Diversion: You got this?
