Launch Pad

Tale of two jobs numbers. The latest U.S. jobs numbers reinforce the narrative that the labour  market remains resilient despite elevated rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and persistent inflation pressures. Nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 last month and comes after a stronger than expected rise in March. The two consecutive months of job gains (something not seen in nearly a year) suggest employers are still hiring cautiously, while stable unemployment and moderating wage growth further support the soft-landing outlook. For the Fed, this report likely reduces urgency for near-term rate cuts, as labour conditions remain solid enough to justify patience while inflation risks remain  elevated. It was a different story in Canada, with April employment report pointing to a softer economy with job losses, unemployment rising to 6.9%, and a sharp year-to-date decline in full-time work suggesting labour market conditions are deteriorating more than previously expected. While wage growth remains relatively strong, much of that strength is concentrated among higher earners, potentially masking growing pressure on lower-income households and younger workers. This creates a difficult balancing act for the Bank of Canada, as weakening employment may argue for easing while elevated wage growth and geopolitical inflation risks complicate aggressive cuts. 

A number of executives in the U.S. are warning that consumers, particularly lower-income households, are reaching financial exhaustion as rising fuel costs and broader inflation pressures erode discretionary spending power. Higher gas prices are taking away funds that would have gone to restaurants, retail, fitness, and consumer goods, with many households drawing down savings or relying more heavily on credit to maintain spending. This dynamic poses a risk to the broader economy as consumer resilience has been one of the primary pillars supporting growth. If elevated energy costs continue, weakening consumer demand could soon slow the U.S. economy. 

Independence Day deadline…for Europeans. Trump said he would extend the EU trade agreement deadline to July 4, delaying an immediate escalation in transatlantic trade tensions, particularly around the auto sector. Still, uncertainty for markets remains high, which markets seem to have become accustomed to. By using tariff threats as leverage, Trump continues to pressure the European Union into accelerating ratification while maintaining the risk of substantial new duties if talks stall. For Europe, this creates an additional economic vulnerability at a time when growth is already pressured by energy costs and political fragility. While the temporary reprieve lowers the temperature a bit, unresolved U.S.-EU trade friction remains a dark cloud for industrial supply chains, European exporters, and broader investor confidence. 

Japan is undertaking one of its most coordinated efforts in years to stabilize the weakening yen, combining currency intervention, a more hawkish Bank of Japan stance, and potential diplomatic backing from the U.S. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s move towards tighter monetary policy has strengthened Tokyo’s ability to defend the currency by aligning central bank policy more closely with finance ministry intervention efforts. However, structural pressures, including Japan’s energy import dependence and global oil shocks, continue to weigh on the yen, meaning authorities are likely focused more on slowing depreciation rather than engineering a full reversal. While Japan’s strategy may not permanently change the yen’s long-term trajectory, stronger policy coordination could provide some stability in the near term. 

Managing quotas. Canada is working through how to allocate a new 49,000-vehicle, lower-tariff quota for Chinese-made EVs as officials consider caps on individual manufacturers to prevent market concentration. The policy opens the door for new entrants like BYD, Chery, and Geely, while also allowing incumbents like Tesla to import China-built vehicles. Initial permits are being distributed on a first-come basis, but the government is weighing a more structured allocation to ensure broader participation and support lower-priced EV adoption over time. While the quota represents less than 3% of Canada’s overall auto market, it is more meaningful within EVs.  In that context, the policy is less about overall volume and more about potentially influencing pricing and competitive dynamics. 

It’s Mother’s Day this weekend, an annual reminder of the people who can do so much with so little sleep. It’s one of the busiest times of the year for florists for good reason, accounting for about a quarter of all holiday flower purchases (it’s not too late to place your order!). A shoutout to all the moms, grandmas, aunties, stepmoms, and those who show up in ways that don’t fit a title but carry just as much weight. Thank you for holding it all together behind the scenes and in front of them, juggling work, family, and everything in between, often with little fanfare. It’s the small, quiet moments and gestures that add up to a lifetime of memories that matter most. The day is yours, enjoy the brunch, the lunch, the flowers, the cards, and whatever small moments of appreciation come your way, and do it all guilt-free. Happy Mother’s Day! 

The United Nations’ index of food-commodity prices showed global food prices climbed to their highest level in over three years. For April, prices gained 1.6% led by higher vegetable oils, meat, and cereals. The gauge was 2.5% year-over-year. This was the third consecutive month of gains, with the meat index climbing 1.2% to a record high, while the cereal price index rose 0.8% on weather concerns and expectations of reduced wheat plantings in 2026, as farmers consider sowing less fertilizer‑intensive crops. The effective shuttering of the Strait has cut off flows of essential farm inputs such as diesel and fertilizer and boosting prices. Elevated oil prices have also boosted demand for biofuels, with the UN’s vegetable oils index climbing 5.9% from March to hit its highest since July 2022. The gauge monitors raw commodity costs rather than retail prices, meaning there is a lag before the effective increase reaches consumers. Still, the gains from the March level are the first sign that food inflation is likely to pick up, even as Iran weighs a U.S.-proposed deal to end the war.