Intel shares are up nearly 30% premarket after reporting stronger sales and raising guidance, providing a lift to the Nasdaq (more in co. News below). Outside of that, markets have been weighed down by uncertainty around the Middle East, with North American indexes including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and TSX closing lower yesterday and now down for the week as of Thursday’s close. Hopes for renewed U.S.–Iran talks in Pakistan have yet to materialize, while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Signs of a prolonged conflict may be emerging, with the U.S. deploying a third aircraft carrier to the region to support its blockade of Iranian ports. Oil continues to respond, with Brent rising for a fifth straight session and up roughly 15% this week. It has, however, pared some gains this morning after reports from Pakistan that Iran’s foreign minister is expected to arrive in Islamabad, suggesting a potential path toward talks, though none have been confirmed.
Canadian consumer spending has shown surprising resilience, rising for a third consecutive month despite growing economic headwinds from tariffs and the Iran war. Retail sales are estimated to have increased 0.6% in March, following solid gains in January and February, with strength across key categories such as autos, general merchandise, and food. Even core retail sales continued to grow, suggesting underlying demand remains intact. However, part of the increase may reflect higher gasoline prices rather than stronger real consumption, and broader conditions remain fragile, with a soft labour market and rising inflation pressures.
Rising energy costs from the Iran conflict is straining the global economy, with business surveys showing rising inflation pressures alongside uneven growth impacts across regions. The euro area appears particularly vulnerable, with Germany experiencing notable declines in both manufacturing and services activity, raising concerns about a potential recession and reducing the likelihood of near-term rate hikes by the European Central Bank. In contrast, parts of Asia and other regions are showing more resilience, though much of the recent strength may reflect front-loaded production as companies rush to get ahead of higher costs and supply disruptions.
Canada too. Early signs suggest the Iran war is beginning to weigh on Canada’s economy, with higher fuel costs and trade disruptions hitting consumer spending and key industries. Auto sales fell 8.2% year-over-year in March, declining across all provinces as higher gas prices discouraged big-ticket purchases and broader uncertainty dampened demand. At the same time, rising energy costs are pushing inflation expectations higher, with businesses now expecting prices to rise faster and consumers becoming more cautious, with about one in four households delaying or canceling spending. The weakness is also showing up in currency markets, where the Canadian dollar has unexpectedly weakened despite higher oil prices, reflecting growing investor concern about the country’s economic outlook.
Donald Trump initiated a major shift in U.S. drug policy by reclassifying state-licensed medical marijuana from a Schedule I drug to Schedule III, a less restrictive category that recognizes potential medical use and lowers regulatory barriers. The move, carried out by the Justice Department, does not legalize marijuana federally but significantly eases restrictions, allowing more research, reducing tax burdens for licensed businesses, and aligning federal policy more closely with the majority of states that already permit medical use. Supporters view it as a landmark step toward modernizing cannabis policy, while critics argue it could downplay potential risks.
It takes two to tango. PM Mark Carney signalled that provincial bans on U.S. alcohol could be reversed quickly, but only if the U.S. takes steps to ease broader trade tensions. Several provinces, including Ontario and Quebec, have pulled U.S. wine and spirits from store shelves in response to tariffs, a move that has drawn pushback and threats from Washington. Carney framed the issue as part of a wider negotiation, pointing to tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and forest products as the real sticking points. While liquor listings are ultimately controlled at the provincial level, he made clear that any resolution will require reciprocal movement, not unilateral demands from the U.S., particularly ahead of the upcoming CUSMA review. The message is straightforward. Progress is possible, but only within a broader reset in trade relations.
No smoke for you. The U.K. has approved one of the world’s strictest anti-smoking laws, banning anyone born after 2008 from legally purchasing cigarettes, in an attempt to make a smoke-free generation. The legislation also tightens restrictions on vaping, including limits on sales, advertising, and product displays, targeting youth access. The policy aims to reduce long-term health risks, ease pressure on the healthcare system, and prevent future nicotine addiction, building on decades of declining smoking rates. While millions of adults still smoke and vaping remains popular, the law represents a major shift toward prevention-focused public health policy which is expected to have a long-term societal impact.
Diversion: Fore!!!
