Today
Stock futures and metals have pared some losses but remain lower this morning. Markets continue to wrestle with questions about whether heavy AI spending will translate into profits for Big Tech, following a tech-led selloff earlier this week. Meta’s strong outlook helped stabilize sentiment after its shares surged, while Microsoft’s sharp decline in slowing cloud growth reinforced concerns that AI monetization may take longer to materialize. Gold and silver are also under pressure, with gold briefly falling through 5,000 before recovering (see commodities below). The pullback in precious metals followed a sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar after news of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair, which weakened the debasement narrative just as positioning had become stretched. With gold and silver up roughly +20% and +60% ytd and technicals overbought, the headline provided a catalyst for some profit-taking. Warsh is viewed by some as a relatively “safe” choice, given his historically hawkish leanings, though he has shifted more recently, arguing that policy is now overly restrictive as disinflation takes hold and real rates remain elevated.
According to estimates, Canada’s economy may have slipped into contraction in Q4, with GDP likely shrinking at a 0.5% annualized pace as growth stalled late in the year, as the economy continues to absorb the fallout from U.S. tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty. Actual data released this morning show output was flat in November, while an early estimate points to a modest 0.1% increase in December. Beneath the surface, industry output rose just 0.1% in December after flat November data, goods-producing sectors down 0.3%, and manufacturing hit particularly hard, falling 1.3% on the month and nearly 5% year over year. Declines were led by weakness in autos, forestry, and other export-heavy industries, while modest gains in retail and services only partly offset the drag. The Bank of Canada has warned that the economy will face uneven and fragile growth as businesses grapple with reduced trade flows and lingering policy uncertainty.
Few surprises here. Trump said he plans to nominate former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, refocusing attention on the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. Trump said Warsh “would be one of the great Federal Reserve chairmen,” signalling his preference for a Fed leadership more aligned with his push for lower interest rates despite a still resilient economy. The Fed most recently held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% after cutting three times in 2025, while Trump has argued borrowing costs should be two to three percent lower. When Trump nominated Powell in 2017, he described him as “strong” and “smart,” praise that later gave way to public criticism once policy diverged from presidential preferences. The episode serves as a reminder that the relationship between the White House and the Fed can evolve quickly as economic conditions and policy priorities change.
Oh look, more threats. Trump escalated trade tensions with Canada last night by threatening a 50% tariff on Canadian-made aircraft sold into the U.S. and warning he could decertify new planes built there, a move that would directly target Bombardier and potentially block its access to its largest market. The dispute came after Trump claimed that Canada has delayed certifying several Gulfstream jets, prompting him to demand approval or face the duties, though aviation analysts question whether the U.S. even has the authority to revoke certifications unrelated to safety. The threats rattle the private-jet market, where U.S. buyers account for more than half of global demand and where Bombardier makes roughly two-thirds of its sales, raising the risk of weaker orders and supply-chain disruption across North America, even as many Bombardier components are sourced from U.S. suppliers.
That wasn’t the only warning flying around. Following Mark Carney’s recent visit to China, Trump warned both Canada and the UK against deepening business ties with Beijing, calling such moves “very dangerous” and singling out Canada as particularly exposed. The comments came after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced steps to reset relations with China during a Beijing trip, including trade and travel measures, as London seeks to rebuild ties frayed in recent years. The episode highlights growing friction between Washington and its allies, who are cautiously hedging their economic and diplomatic relationships with China amid uncertainty over US policy and the risk of retaliation through tariffs.
Despite talk of a sell America trade, investors aren’t abandoning U.S. assets outright. Instead, we are seeing signs of a gradual rotation as U.S. equities lag global peers and valuations look stretched. The U.S. still dominates global market cap and profitability, led by megacap tech, however last year marked the worst relative performance for U.S. stocks in two decades, with the S&P 500 trailing international markets and the dollar sliding, eating away at returns for global investors. Policy uncertainty under Trump, trade tensions, concerns about rule-of-law, and currency stability have pushed capital toward cheaper and faster-growing alternatives, including Europe, EM, and Japan, where returns have outpaced the U.S. and price-to-earnings ratios are lower. With the U.S. rally once again concentrated in a handful of tech names and the valuation gap widening, the case for rebalancing away from U.S. is strengthening.
Super Bowl economics lives in a different universe. Ad prices for the big game have climbed as high as $10 million for a 30-second spot ahead of the big day, at least for most fans (excluding Bills fans), with average rates around $8 million and nearly 40% of sponsors new to this year’s game. If you’re tuning in for the commercials, expect more from tech, pharma, and wellness brands when the Seattle Seahawks face the New England Patriots. With last year’s game drawing a record 128 million viewers, brands are leaning on celebrity-driven and high-production spots, reinforcing the Super Bowl’s status as one of the few TV events that delivers to a broad reach. Ad space isn’t the only thing that is expensive. Super Bowl ticket prices are among the highest on record this year, with resale platforms reporting an average purchase price of about $8,230 USD per seat, second only to last year’s $9,800 record when the game was held in Las Vegas. And for those tuning in for Bad Bunny, it’s nice to know the halftime show still comes included with admission and the TV broadcast.
Diversion: Part of the crew
