Launch Pad

Votes are in. Alberta voters have rejected the prospect of separating from Canada, with 76% wishing to stay after nearly 1.6 million ballots had been counted. The referendum, initiated by Premier Danielle Smith following a separatist petition, asked Albertans whether they supported holding a binding independence vote, as early as 2027, rather than directly voting on secession. Both Carney and Smith welcomed the outcome, emphasizing national unity, although divisions within Smith’s governing United Conservative Party could continue given the support for separatism among portions of its base. Yesterday’s result provides more political stability for Alberta’s energy sector, which produces more than 4 million barrels of oil per day and is looking for more investments to expand production and diversify exports beyond the U.S. Business groups are also pleased with the outcome as many had warned that independence could discourage investment and lead to corporate relocations. 

Growth at a reasonable price. Stronger U.S. economic growth, persistent inflation and concerns about government debt are keeping expectations for Treasury yields high. According to the latest WSJ survey of 71 economists, Q3 GDP growth forecast was raised to 3.1% annualized from 2% in July, with 60 of 64 economists who participated in both surveys revising their estimates higher. That resilience, combined with inflation concerns and the federal government’s substantial borrowing needs, also helps explain why about three-quarters of respondents expect the 10-year Treasury yield, currently around 5.1%, to finish the year at 5% or higher, while over a third see yields remaining at those levels through 2027. Although inflation is projected to ease to 2.3% by the end of 2027, helped by lower oil prices, stronger growth gives the Fed less reason to cut rates. Despite stronger forecasted growth, hiring is expected to average 56,000 jobs per month over the next year, well below pre-pandemic norms, suggesting that higher output may not translate into much additional employment. For equity investors, stronger growth generally supports corporate earnings, but higher borrowing costs and discount rates can weigh on valuations. The question is whether earnings growth can offset that pressure should yields remain above 5%, as many economists expect. 

India’s growth ambitions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reiterated his government’s goal of achieving developed-economy status by 2047, an ambitious target requiring sustained annual economic growth above 8%, supported by productivity gains, foreign investment and continued reforms. The country benefits from a large domestic market and considerable development potential, but faces challenges including youth unemployment, protests over proposed changes to electoral rolls and a weakening rupee. Higher oil prices have also increased import costs and prompted intervention by the Reserve Bank of India in currency markets. On AI, the government is focusing on widespread adoption, enterprise applications and productivity improvements rather than developing the most advanced models. This approach could create opportunities for the country’s established IT services companies to help businesses integrate AI, although uncertainty remains about the technology’s impact on employment and traditional outsourcing models. 

Indonesia’s equity market is facing a crisis of confidence after global index provider MSCI warned that it could downgrade the country from emerging-market to standalone status, triggering a selloff that erased $65 bln in market cap. MSCI cited concerns over unclear ownership structures, insufficient free-float transparency, suspected coordinated trading activity, and weak regulatory enforcement,  saying that previous warnings have failed to lead to any improvements in market integrity. Indonesian authorities have responded by doubling minimum free-float requirements to 15%, strengthening shareholder disclosure rules, tightening capital requirements for securities firms, and imposing $116 mln in fines related to market manipulation, although these measures don’t seem to have satisfied MSCI. The potential reclassification would represent a significant setback for Southeast Asia’s largest economy, potentially forcing EM index funds to divest Indonesian equities. It’s been a rough year for Indonesian equities, with the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index declining over – 40% YTD, and Friday’s -11.6% decline marking its worst single-day performance in nearly three decades. The Indonesian rupiah has also depreciated more than -7% this year, making it the region’s weakest-performing currency. 

What’s another $10 billion? Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt is poised for another big payday from Anthropic’s anticipated IPO. Schmidt invested tens of millions of dollars in the AI startup’s Series A round in 2021, when the company was valued at $461 million, and reportedly still owns about 1%. At Anthropic’s latest valuation of $965 billion, that stake would be worth nearly $10 billion, while a potential $2 trillion IPO valuation would put it closer to $20 billion. Not a bad return on an early bet. Schmidt, whose existing fortune is estimated at $57.5 billion, could see his net worth approach $80 billion if the company achieves the higher valuation. Anthropic is reportedly preparing to begin marketing its IPO in November, with trading potentially starting before U.S. Thanksgiving. The listing could rival SpaceX’s record $1.77 trillion debut and deliver substantial windfalls for Anthropic’s founders and early investors. 

C(ant) we all just get along? Rival supercolonies of invasive Argentine ants in southern California have been fighting over territory for decades, with millions of casualties and surprisingly little to show for it. Originally from South America, the ants arrived in the U.S. through commercial shipping and have since established enormous colonies, including one stretching roughly 1,000 km along the California coast. Researchers have documented aggressive encounters during 40% of site visits, with individual clashes resulting in approximately 15,000 dead ants. Along one territorial boundary near San Diego, an estimated 15 million ants were killed over just six months. Despite the losses, the colonies’ boundaries have barely shifted, leaving researchers with an unusual example of prolonged territorial conflict in the insect world. 


Diversion: Gotta have my stick 
 

Corn futures in the U.S. are lower for a sixth day, their longest losing streak since March 2025, as harvest pressure and weak exports led hedge funds to sell their positions at a rapid pace. Recent data is showing corn for export dropped almost 50% week-on-week to 672,500 tons in the period ending Oct. 15 and total sales for the marketing year are down 2.3% annually. According to the USDA, with 44% of the American corn crop now harvested, the boom in supply is putting more pressure on prices. Money managers’ net-long position on corn hit a two-month low in the week ending October 13, as funds began to sell their long positions across the grain complex despite doubts over agricultural supplies from the Black Sea and the threat of a severe El Niño weather system.