Launch Pad

Who could have predicted this? Inflation in the U.S. spiked in March, with the CPI rising 0.9% month-over-month, the largest increase since 2022, driven by a rise in gasoline prices linked to the Iran conflict. Annual inflation climbed to 3.3%, while core inflation rose a more modest 0.2%, indicating the shock was largely energy-driven rather than broad-based. The jump highlights how quickly geopolitical events are feeding through to consumer costs, adding to affordability pressures and prompting businesses to signal further price increases. Even if tensions ease, economists expect elevated energy and transportation costs to linger and potentially push up food prices as well. For now, markets didn’t appear to react to the news, suggesting investors see the spike as somewhat temporary. 

Canada’s labour market showed some signs of stabilization in March, with the economy adding 14,100 jobs after losses earlier in the year, though the unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%. Gains were concentrated in services and natural resources, but overall hiring remained too weak to signal a strong rebound, especially in trade-sensitive sectors still facing pressure. The report also highlighted regional disparities, with higher unemployment in parts of Ontario and rising joblessness in BC. Wage growth was a bright spot, with average hourly earnings rising 5.1%, well above expectations, although that could add to inflation concerns. The BoC has kept interest rates on hold as it balances these mixed signals of soft employment trends and ongoing geopolitical risks, although there are some signs that the central bank will raise rates later this year. 

Securing the Strait. The U.S. is pressing allies to provide concrete plans to secure the Strait of Hormuz, as a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel struggles to hold and strikes continue. A UK-led coalition of more than 40 countries, including Canada, has pledged to reopen the waterway, which carries about 20% of global oil and gas, as it remains effectively closed. Allied officials are now focused on potentially leveraging and pre-positioning assets already in the region, while assessing how quickly additional support can be deployed, with open questions around timing, scope, and whether the effort will operate under a NATO framework or remain coalition-led. The U.S. push builds on allied commitments to ensure freedom of navigation, though the feasibility of the proposed timeline remains uncertain. Tensions between the U.S. and its allies over coordination and burden sharing continue to linger. 

Fuel pressure builds. Canadian consumers are feeling the pinch from higher energy prices, with a recent Nanos survey showing nearly 39% favour cutting fuel taxes as the top policy response to rising gas costs, well ahead of investment in long-term energy alternatives at 22%. Other measures such as rebates, public transit incentives, and EV support each received about 9% support, while only a small minority preferred no action. The familiar backdrop of higher gasoline prices, up materially since the start of the year, has added to broader affordability pressures. Households are already adjusting behaviour, with over a third reporting they are driving less and some cutting spending in other area, highlighting the economy’s sensitivity to energy prices and the policy trade-offs facing Ottawa. 

Insider trading? The White House issued an internal warning to staff on the use of non-public information in financial and prediction markets following a series of unusually well-timed trades tied to developments in the Iran conflict, including a spike in oil futures activity shortly before a market-moving post by Trump. While officials maintain there is no evidence of wrongdoing (futures activity does not count), the pattern has drawn scrutiny across both traditional markets and emerging betting platforms, where similar trades have generated profits. As attention builds around the potential for insiders to benefit from privileged access, a spokesperson emphasized that “the only special interest that will ever guide Trump is the best interest of the American people,” even as the timing of trades alongside policy signals continues to raise questions around information flow. 

Green jacket glow. Day one at Augusta is in the books, and Rory McIlroy is off to a strong start. The defending champ opened with a 5-under 67, tying for the early lead on a course that proved challenging, with few players breaking par. There’s a different feel to McIlroy this year it seems with less pressure and more confidence, now playing as someone who has already conquered Augusta.  If last year was any guide, maybe a little magic (and luck) would help again this year. Fans may recall his daughter Poppy’s 25-foot putt during Masters week, a moment that went viral well beyond the golf world. Days later, Rory McIlroy finally delivered his breakthrough, defeating Justin Rose in a very emotional playoff to win his first Masters title. The victory completed the rare career Grand Slam (Masters, PGA, U.S. Open, and The Open), an achievement only a handful of players in history have reached. Still early, but the start suggests Rory’s not done yet. 

Cotton futures are on track for the biggest weekly gain in almost three years as rising oil prices prompt textile manufacturers to shift toward the natural fiber. The most-active contract was poised for an advance of more than 6% in New York, the largest weekly addition since May 2023. Futures hit the highest in 21 months on Thursday after the world’s biggest consumer China raised its cotton consumption outlook. Conflict in the Middle East has driven up energy prices, increasing the cost of synthetic fibers such as polyester and improving cotton’s competitiveness. Mills in Asia, which rely heavily on the Gulf region for feedstocks used in chemical fibers, are likely to adjust blends to incorporate more cotton.